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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (30914)	3/8/2001 10:53:48 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill, re: grey market / spot market etc. You make good points regarding disti's selling etc. One point is that Disti's service smaller customers, customers with credit issues and lower volumes in general. And disti's make 20-30 Gross margin typically on reselling these parts. High volume major accounts like an IBM, Nokia etc buy supplier direct. With annual contracts with some price collars etc. When they end up with oversupply they also dump into the grey/spot market etc. Every contract has CANCELLATION clauses in worst case. In addition every contract allows customer some right to reschedule except within a narrow window etc (ie 60-90 days). Just a 1Q shift can have devastating effects on a company. These contract customers are usually the "elite" customers and it is very rare that they are not allowed to reduce orders, shift volumes etc. regards, Kash

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (30914)	3/8/2001 11:21:58 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill: "The situation shifts from shortage to glut in hours and that is why you get these wide swings in the spot market" Sounds like the stock market...Kidding aside, AMD's Athy might sell 3.5 million units in Q1 compared to worldwide Q1 microprocessor demand of 30 million. Given that the Athy is the "premier" product in the marketplace, without premier pricing, there is every reason to believe that Athy demand is in its accelerating phase and 10 million Athy processors by Q4 is not out of the question, given its market leading features and significant price/performance advantage...Couple that with the likelihood of a rebound in flash pricing in H2 Y2001, and today's AH price of $24.50 may be the bargain of the year...No company anywhere, that I know of, can make the legitimate claim of world leadership in product innovation and price/performance advantage in two such major sectors, flash and microprocessing, as can AMD...Even if growth is marginal, AMD gains in marketshare are likely to more than offset any decline (but still positive year over year) growh rate in one or both of these sectors...Buy, buy, buy AMD while you can, below $25...Tomorrow's first hour may offer the last opportunity at such a discount from any valuation if current financial benchmarks, superior product lineup and projected AMD revenue growth rate are in any way price determinants...