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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (40109)	3/8/2001 11:32:27 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

lurqer, I can't argue with the demographic scenarios Dent uses. But I can't argue for them either. He puts terrific anecdotal evidence on the table but he doesn't prove any direct cause-and-effect relationships, only the possibility or probability that they existed in the past and will continue to exist in the future. Because the stuff he writes about is so compelling, I'd encourage anyone to read his books, especially people near the end of their saving years or past them. Each of us should come to conclusions about how to ignore or react to his thinking. In that context, I've never let his thoughts about the year 2008 become dismissed from even my sad memory. (Quiet, Frank! :) --Mike Buckley

To: lurqer who wrote (40109)	3/9/2001 10:16:30 AM
From: areokat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>What has me worried is the looming demographic trough in those producer/consumers that may portend a true secular bear later this decade.<< Dent uses this baby boomer retirement trend to predict a decline in the US stock market as cash flows out. However, a counter trend not considered, is that there are indications that a sizeable number of early baby boomers may continue to work beyond normal retirement age because they haven't put aside enough money for retirement and thereby delaying the market reversal effect . Besides, Dent's projection is for a nasdaq of 10,000 by the end of the decade. If you haven't made "your bones" by then, shame on us :). Kat