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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (119801)	3/8/2001 11:46:19 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 164684

>> Seriously, doesn't the PC slowdown make you worried about the disk drive stocks? Will things like Tivo and NAS and the consolidation of the drive biz offset a slowdown in PCs? What I've seen happen is that people defer replacing the PC, but they update their disk drive. But that is only part of the story. The disk drive business has been so unrewarding for the past 4 years that investment in it has shrunk very much. But demand has exploded and finally is balanced with supply. I'm betting that there will now be an imbalance to the shortage side, and profits will rise until supply capacity is increased. That should provide a couple quarters of rising prices and profits. And possibly share prices will over-react to the upside. That's my bet, anyway. By the way, I have the same sort of bet on auto parts makers and machinery companies. And before that on oil drillers. It was unfashionable to buy Tidewater and Diamond Offshore when oil was $12/barrel. I did and it turned out quite well. The same people who wouldn't look at those stocks 2 years ago, are now buying them after they tripled. I hope the same will happen with disk drives.