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To: Gottfried who wrote (129636)	3/9/2001 1:23:41 AM
From: Jacques Newey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Gottfried: Thanks for the historical data. I noticed on your... suite101.com that the amplitude of each shipment "trough" was proportional to the amplitude of the previous shipment "peak". Makes sense to me intuitively as higher-and-higher excess inventory takes longer-and-longer and to work off? Given the amplitude and frequency of the recent shipment "peak", this might not bode well for the amplitude and duration of the coming down cycle. Purely an uninformed observation on my part. I know nothing of semiconductor demand cycles. Would be interested in your and other expert's thoughts on this. Am I out to lunch here?