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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (9766)	3/11/2001 11:10:03 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Be prepared to withstand some 18 months in the doldrums. Time will have to eat into the existing infrastructure. Circuit switch technology still has 3 to 5 years remaining life. It is very unlikely that there will be cheap capital to replace fixed line circuit switch. Don't expect any help from this segment to take techstocks out of the hole. Most likely Circuit switch will be replaced by 3G/UMTS infrastructure. 3G/UMTS has a big problem: It was developed under the bubble effect. Now with the bubble gone, 3G/UMTS has to be rethought. And fast. As we can see there is no more auction at obscene prices going on. UK and Germany operators are in deep trouble. They bought licensees under bubble conditions. These operators have now to press governments to return some of the money back!! Perhaps with some sort of subsidy for 3G/UMTS build out. Sharing the Iron Mobile operators build networks in serie. They have to build 3G/UMTS in parallel. Hence we have distinct operators with distinct networks.Mobile operators that planned to build redundant networks side by side are already reconsidering. They have to build networks with common infrastructures. Sharing the iron. It is not very likely that the developing world can pick up the slack now that 2G has reached saturation in developed markets. This year it will do. Both for infrastructure and for terminals. But beyond the 2001 3G/UMTS has to carry the day. The chipmakers are at the mercy of 3G/UMTS. Without its demand pull there is no attractiveness for new PC's. Without the traffic generated by 3G/UMTS the available bandwidth will not be used. Fiber optics will not bootstrap it by itself. Most of invisible price operators paid to build GSM will not be afforded by the 3G/UMTS upgraded. Disparate OSS. Disparate management systems for the networks is a case in point. Inefficient use of transmission capacity is another. The next tide will lift the boats. But not all of them. In the interim time, mobile vendors have the developing world to sell GSM infrastructure which will generate demand for mobile terminals. CSCO has not this possibility to pick up the slack. They will be cutting more heavily in the second half of this year. Networks companies that would probably dye on the doldrums, are already acquired, Newbridge and Baynetworks. But the small ones will vanish without a trace. Here and there some big teleocm vendor will buy on the cheap technology such as Siemens buying Efficient Networks.