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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (9950)	3/9/2001 11:52:48 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Looks like I was very very wrong about gold huh? Big Ooops on my part. Congratulations on your puts. I kept wanting to pull the trigger but it just wouldn't die so I gave up waiting for better signs that it would give. I am thanking the stars right now that next week is triple witch otherwise I would be looking for a serious crash Monday/Tuesday. Not much support left below here until we get to 1700 NDX then 1500 and last 1100. Pulled the trigger a bit too early and put a spread on yesterday. At least the short call part is helping to ease the pain. CSCO clawing trying to hold 20. I have a bet on it will see the teens so I wish it would hurry up and get it over with. <gggg> I think this drop surprised almost everyone. The threads are strangly quiet today except for the CFZ of course. <g> Good Luck, Lee

To: Poet who wrote (9950)	3/9/2001 12:44:58 PM
From: hobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Hi Po, sorry for taking so long to respond, just being concentrated in this crazy market. Yes I am quite happy, getting ready (I have not done any packing yet for the trip so the weekend will be busy) As for the market... I took profits on QCOM calls (a tad early), as I saw it had some strength before giving way... but with QCOM you can never be sure... here and there it has fits of its own inspiration and so, after being under water in both positions, I saw the profit and I took it. I also took a nice profit on some SUNW calls I had. I have seen some stocks that begin to bounce at certain levels while the NAZ futures continues to slide. I am starting to get nervous being on the short side. I am not implying that "we have reached bottom", since quite frankly, I have no idea when that will take place, I will let the market tell me when, (if at all --ggg---). But a reaction rally could take place and it could be in a violent manner. At such point, I would feel more comfortable re-joining the shorts... For now... I think the trip will be a welcome brake. My ADBE held, (for now), but this one has made me really sweat, if I end up with a profit on that one, it will be well earned -g-. Today, it actually went below 25 (my put strike price), and as I write this it is getting back to the 27 level (wheeeeuu) ... I have a week left (and be sure that I will be on the phone with Schwab checking on this one. Certainly not out of the woods yet, so I will keep on watching. In the last few days I have opened positions (short puts) on XTO WGR and NE (some March, some APRIL) all of them have done well, in spite of a slight pull back on NE today. XTO and WGR have been excellent moves (so far). In talking to Jorj he tells me that the Gas Index (XNG) has to take out the 272 high to continue marching upwards, or else risk a double top... (he feels it should go past 276). I shall keep a close eye on these, as I am sure Jorj knows a lot about gas --ggg--. I see the natural gas (and in general energy) stocks as a slightly better sector than gold under the current environment. You know my argument against gold, in which I see it as a mere speculative vehicle with relatively limited industrial use, whereas natural gas seem to have a bright future as far as continuing demand for it. In addition, there seems to be an ongoing battle of speculators on both sides, frankly although I have consider taking some sort of position (say an option), I seem to favor the natural gas sector. we shall see. In reading a some articles about the natural market, although there seems to be plenty of supply, the demand for it also seems to be growing even stronger and it may be so for the next 10 years. In producing electricity, natural gas seems to have no competition as the choice for fuel for the power plants to use. Anyway... I am glad you have had a profitable day... I will look at the market towards the end to see if I can make sense of its trend as to which way it may paint going towards the FOMC meeting (and options expirations next week). --Luckily I will be away-- -gg-