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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (71564)	3/9/2001 12:16:21 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

There must be an end to the litany of sales and earnings warnings before light appears at the end of the tunnel. The best gains made in bull markets tend to come in the first six months of a fresh bull market, when profits are still usually declining. So it's difficult for investors to be optimistic when they're staring at a terrible outlook for corporate earnings. But when rates start to decline, that acts as a catalyst in generating buying power because cash coupled with lower rates is not as attractive as cash coupled with higher rates. The current profit scene is not nearly as important as that anticipated. --Martin Zweig Winning On Wall Street, Page 126.

To: Rob S. who wrote (71564)	3/9/2001 4:23:30 PM
From: DukeCrow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

on the other hand, the long range picture for tech spending is better than the current downturn in demand caused by excess inventory and build-outs reflects. One question. How does excess inventory and build-outs (capacity) cause a downturn in demand? A downturn in demand may cause what was once necessary capacity to become excess, and it may cause inventory to pile up which was ordered in anticipation of greater demand. However, I don't see how the opposite is possible -- that excess supply causes a reduction in demand. Ali