Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43404)	3/9/2001 1:07:01 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, [edited] in a bear market the bottom is always predicted to be 15% lower than where the index is. The very last of these predictions is wrong. It's Gottfried's 1. rule. Second rule: in a general market decline the stock you want to buy most stays strong. >institutions won't all be calling this over until we are back to mid 1997 levels, or 1750-1800.< Gottfried :)

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43404)	3/9/2001 2:35:32 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Obviously, the bottom will occur after I have committed all my cash and only the lucky AMAT threaders will know when!

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43404)	3/9/2001 3:19:46 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

It won't end until the money flows reverse. There are very few times like now, when money flows to stock mutual funds stop completely. Right now, all new money is going into cash and bonds. Not only that, but total margin debt peaked just as the Nas peaked, and has been steadily declining. Stocks can't go up as long as that continues. Looks like we're going to co-celebrate the Nas 5K anniversary, and hold a Nas 2K wake. The Nas is now all the way back to the July 1998 peak, and we are at the top of the range where the Nas stalled for most of 1997 and 1998. The whole bubble has been given back, (assuming you use end-of-1998 as the start of the bubble, not 1995). The S&P 500 is about at Fair Value (forward PE = inverse of yield on 10Y Treasuries = about 20). Your target of 1800 on the Nas isn't very far away. Sentiment certainly is very bad. So, I'm thinking it's time to start buying the dips again, cautiosly. I'm still going to sell the rallies, however, for a while, and maintain puts/shorts to balance my longs.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43404)	3/9/2001 3:35:05 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"Its current level suggest to me that the street has concluded that everything past mid year 1997 was a bubble, and therefore, I suspect that the institutions won't all be calling this over until we are back to mid 1997 levels, or 1750-1800. " No growth for four years would really be a terrible return. Perhaps it would make more sense to expect performance since then along the lines of historical norms, once the market has finished overcorrecting.