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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AD who wrote (36462)	3/9/2001 1:57:05 PM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

I try to shed some positive light, because there's to much negativity out there

To: AD who wrote (36462)	3/9/2001 2:36:46 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 49816

I'm not responding for KevinM but would like to address the concern in general: --1. Going long a $5 stock, the worst case, theoretically, is you can lose $5 a share. Going short has no limit. If someone held too long a period while the stock went to $20... or $100... you could lose way more. Obviously, few are going to hold either long or short to those extremes, yet viewed in this light, the potential loss is greater from shorting. --2. When one has been in a bull mkt for a long time, habits develop. It takes a different mindset to search for shorts when you're accustomed to the opposite. --3. Though it is undoubtedly wisest to choose shorts during a bear market, since there are possibly 4 stocks down for each one that's up, on most days, it is also wise to grow more cautious with short calls when one feels bottoms are near. Reversals can suck, as any one that got nailed in a squeeze will tell you. --4. KM is one of the most astute traders I've observed on SI and if he posted he saw indications that the West Coast was about to fall in the ocean, I'd be at the airport, hijacking a flight if necessary. He's not perfect, but he's dang good. He don' need no steenkin' rationale; if it came to him in a vision while he's on the loo, that's okay by me. --5. Trading successfully includes being dispassionate. Sure, you root for your own stocks, short or long. Beyond that, what the mkt does warrants little concern. It is merely an indicator that displays trends and market psychology snapshots. --6. As it's not the first time I've heard this question posed, part of me goes on alert when I hear someone being asked why they do what they do. It sounds like an attempt to persuade. What does the persuader have as a motive? (Not directed at you personally, AD, but just, in general, such thoughts come to mind. --7. I foresee a market likely to trade in a relatively narrow range for awhile. Each month this Spring, I'd project a range no wider than 450 pts. That means many horizontal days and many that yo-yo, with uncertain trends established. I expect successive new lows to be established, at least into May. Why? Simple. I see no catalysts, beyond short-term rate cut rallies, earnings runs, etc. to move the market uphill... or downhill. Though shorts will have a slight edge in this till an absolute bottom occurs, it will often be so trendless that the most successful will be those who adapt well to trading both ways. I think it can be a mistake to go either way with stubborness in such a time. It is a natural instinct to buy low, hoping to go high. KM is excellent at his long suggestions. 2MAR$ was once a great long picker who has developed a good feel for both directions. I pay attention to both, and some others whose calls have a high degree of success. Stan, Jack and others all play a part in my understanding and in my success. If everyone suddenly started posting good shorts right now, that would indicate, to me, to be prepared to go long. So, I prefer reasoned debate where two good traders differ. But vive la difference! As for me, I probably post 75% longs over shorts, mostly because I trust my long eye more than my short one. In over a year on SI, nobody's questioned this, though I have been nailed on a bad call or two, deservedly so sometimes. Otherwise, why does it matter?