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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (71593)	3/9/2001 7:05:54 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Yea listening to conference calls is a great thing to do to get a jump. To me it all comes to inventory as the leading indicator. You can only get those in writing in 10-Q's and 10-K's and late at that so have to get the information somewhere else. But where? Is investor relations going to give me weekly inventory updates over the phone. I doubt it. Somebody is getting the numbers because stocks weaken sometime in the quarter BEFORE the actual realeases. Problems first start to show themselves in inventory, then they start to show up in sales figures and then they start to show up in earnings. There can be a lag of several quarters before it actually starts to show up in earnings. There may be a half a quarter's lag before people notice the drop in sales. In fact the way to actually track the sales I've learned thru the school of hard knocks is to compare this quarter's year over year growth percentage like 50%, 75% or whatever it is and compare this number with last quarter's number. Those numbers either need to keep at least increasing unless they are really high and maintaining really high. I prefer the former rather than the latter. Sales drive everything. If the sales growth isn't there its off to the slaughterhouse. All this talk about earnings missing by a penny and such is nonsense. Thats not the reason for people selling the stock after earnings at all. Its the sales growth numbers.