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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2318)	3/10/2001 8:12:10 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Many of those items you listed are true (tech heavy, consumer debt high, home equity wasted, red portfolio). But further down the list, they are not true. No fear, no lack of faith, "it'll all come back". the following seem not yet true> The regret must be total, repentance genuine, and remorse absolute. The dream of effortless gain must fade, hopes for V shapes dim, and panic overwhelming. The realization for “it is not too late to sell” must be pervasive, before 1998 gains are no more. The mind must once more focus on honest employment, strong work ethic, and retirement savings. With respect to the last entry, people may think they are saving for retirement by putting 10% of their earnings in Nasdaq stocks each year. That is what we've been taught (well, 10% in SOMETHING). But look at the Japanese--even the young people save for retirement the old-fashioned way: money in the bank (post office). I wonder if Americans will ever do the same. I guess they did before (in the 50s, buying bonds).

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2318)	3/10/2001 12:30:21 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Brilliant! Thanx.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2318)	3/10/2001 2:14:04 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

The DEBT BOMB - Captain Ahab Greenspam has thrown his harpoon of higher interest rates at the Great White Whale of non-existent labor inflation. But this preemptive strike bt itself is not the major factor sinking our economy into a recession. What is pushing the US into a recession is an unbalanced economy. There's simply too much debt accumulated by working-class families, and insufficient income growth to pay for it. Despite the illusion of prosperity over this past decade, most American workers haven't shared in the new wealth created by globalization and technology. But they have engaged in conspicuous consumption of life's luxuries at the higher cost of credit. Since 1990, average credit-card dept has risen from $3,000 to $8,000. Filings of bankruptcy have more than doubled. Home refinancing may have only prolonged consumption and the inevitable termination of the debt cycle. In its race for market share, Corporate America has created the crises of overproduction. Thus, as the rate of profit falls, layoffs will acelerate as well. Our economy will experience a deflationary spiral that interest rate cuts can't cure. Time has run out, not only for the debtor but for the creditor as well. Stephen Gottdeiner - Miami, Barrons 03/12/01 "As interest rates drop, people will tend to abuse their credit, going deeper into debt and encouraging inflation." The Pure Fundamentalist - Barrons 03/12/01 The simple fact is, as many have been screaming for months, is this simple truth - the American consumer (2/3rds of GDP) has doomed us in the near term. So many people in America have been chasing the media hyped, too excess lifestyle of the rich and famous. People have not developed saving habits, spending habits are like an addiction - and very difficult to break. The easy credit bubble Greenie has created is just fueling the addiction. This will continue until the real big decelaration begins real soon. Then we will see massive stagflation. Slow Growth, Rising Consumer Prices, Rising Unemployment. We already have two of the three. West