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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/9/2001 9:33:38 PM
From: B.REVERE	Respond to of 436258

A reversal of the downward trend is highly unlikely next week. Mutual fund bagholders get a gander at February's losses this weekend and it ain't pretty. Got "ides of March" "emperor has no clothes" party hats?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/9/2001 10:31:28 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Are you long? Yes or No.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/9/2001 11:25:37 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Zeev second catalyst is Japan, they are getting into "end of the year period", and if you think we have PPT's, they have them galore (they are trying to legislate a special PPT of their own, involving the poor old retirees putting their good savings in a bad market). before April first, the banks absolutely need to have the Nikkei above at least 13500, probably closer to 14,000, or else, they go bust, pure and simple. Thus the Asian markets are going to be manipulated up and strangely, that will support all markets (don't ask what happen two three weeks after that exercise has been completed). I am sorry,but I must ask;what will happen two or three weeks after that exercise has been completed? What are those turnips saying post 4/16/01?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/9/2001 11:47:32 PM
From: GTC Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Zeev, << the banks absolutely need to have the Nikkei above at least 13500, probably closer to 14,000, or else, they go bust, pure and simple >> Is there an easy way for Americans to take advantage of the Japanese rally? Any index calls we can buy? If so, any index puts we can buy on tax day? << we indeed put in the intraday low at 2042 (interestingly, I had the low of that leg at 2000 plus minus 2% or between 1960 to 2040, I still might be right if we open down sharply Monday). >> It is OK if the market is not down sharply on Monday. I think that we will accept an error of 2 points by the turnips. We can forgive and forget and pretend that the turnips were right again. <GGG> Best regards - HB

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/10/2001 10:28:30 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 436258

Zeev: When considering the outlook for Japan, important to remember that NAZ performance has a big impact on the Nikkei. We impact them more than they impact us. A NAZ rally to 2600 is probably worth at least a thousand points on the Nikkei all by itself.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/10/2001 10:44:23 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Zeev - Good to see you posting here a bit more lately. I think your analysis is pretty spot on. I do think we may see a day or two with some more down after which we head back up for about a month. Although I say that with a new found appreciation of the fact is on any given day the market does what it gets paid to. This would seem to be the "normal" alternative. And the one I am inclined to play. I do have some concerns though: I am concerned about the ability of Japan to get and keep the Nikkei to the levels you describe. Also I think the mark to market requirement associated with the year end is going to be troublesome for many banks especially if the market is only able to attain the lower end of your range. It also wouldn't surprise me if some of the assets which will be used to prop up the Nikkei are not currently in US Equity markets and will need to be repatriated for the purpose. This would tend to offset the gains in the US markets that might be associated with a gain in the Nikkei. The recent, albeit denied, activity to devalue the Yen may be part of the effort to make the repatriation as efficient as possible. The second concern I have is that, while I am sure there will be some effort to rally into the Fed meeting, that there is no possibility of good news. I think .50 and a continuing bias to fostering growth is built in. I'm sure given the recent CPI, PPI, and Jobs data there is part of the Board which would like to do .25 but may be reluctant to do so if the market remains weak. If in fact we begin an up leg early next week that might dampen concerns about the market and we could actually get .25. This smaller rate cut, if it were to take place (and I am hard pressed to see it given AG's attempt to ensure that he dies popular) would probably be enough to cause the market to give up whatever gains it made prior to the meeting. The most troubling and problematic concern for me though is trying to get a handle on the type of structural damage which has been inflicted by the decline since last year. One example of this is the increased, quantifiable, volatility currently in the market, which is a key consideration in the risk management programs upon which large institutional investors rely, could potentially provide some drag, especially in conjunction with capital bases that have been eroded more than had been anticipated over the last year. Another example might be the fact that investors who have managed to maintain capital to invest have learned to be quick or dead. It would seem that the corrective (down)legs within the upcoming corrective (up) cycle may be more powerful than such corrective legs usually are. All that said, we are still far from a bottom and the only way we are going to get to the real bottom is by going up. So hopefully up we go.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/10/2001 11:33:06 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Zeev, I am in agreement with you, more so that we have a Monday after a strong selloff. The lack of buyers was very obvious last Friday and they spoiled the closing by disappointing many for a bounce at the close. NAZ stock charts look very bad and there are signs of imminent brake down. As such I do not think that any one in his right mind will venture to abstain from intervention to stabilize the markets, the risks are tremendous for the world economy and the price to be paid in the future will be much higher than a stabilization act next week. After 1987 market do not move in a straight line. Based on the fact that most selling was in the NAZ and mostly in the "love" stocks of last year (including NOK which got an upgrade (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010309/tc/nokia_research_dc_2.html) indicates to me that may be Janus Funds and Fidelity Funds are forced to liquidate due to redemption's. IMHO most J6P bag holders have their statements and they sold all trough February and first week of March, buying into retailers and cyclical's which most of them are up 50% to 100% (even moribund KM, JCP, FD and DDS gained 80% all with mediocre sales growth biz.yahoo.com and zilch earnings almost like DOT.COM's). The employment report if true is not as bad as expected and people still earn money and need to fill their pension funds and 401K. For some reason most SI participants refer to NAZ as it if is the market and I have not noticed that KO, KREM SPLS, SBUX trade around 60 to 100 PE, not to mention CUM and those retailers that still loose money. Civilization is moving their perception of "store of value" from gold and silver ........... to fiat money ....... to bank promises to pay .............. to electronic bits reflecting payments ............ to a minuscule share in a company...... No wonder that shares of AOL, MSFT, LU, NT CSCO et -al was accepted as a legal tender for work and assets. The world corporate cheftains, politicians and CB's will not let slip that perception back to real value ........... it will kill all economies. They will prefer to inflate rater than change perception ............ it is their livelihood. BWDIK Haim