Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (78321)	3/10/2001 12:25:14 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BC, I don't see sentiment being bearish enough to put in even a short term bottom...and I'm positioned accordingly. Hanging on to the XLNX and KLAC shorts (I had cleared out my March poots on most everything a couple weeks ago, but still holding Aprils). Have a good weekend!

To: Perspective who wrote (78321)	3/10/2001 10:51:20 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 436258

No mas, no mas: BC, I did a review of popular press, boards, lightweight commentators, and so on this morning and I am sensing a shift in sentiment that I had not foreseen. In the past few weeks, the bulls have moved from genuine concern and a smattering of capitulation to spite. I suppose this is the sentiment of the stronger hands among the permabulls. This spite manifest itself in statements such as these: » This is nuts. I'll never sell now! » I've held this long and there's no way I'm giving up down here. » We just have to do something about Greenspan. » This is too much. CSCO at 20! LOL Well, you get the idea. Investors today are better schooled at the notion of sentiment and what it portends. I do not think that in previous bear markets that the average joe had much of a sense that extreme sentiment was a powerful signal. What is the consequence of this flowering of knowledge? Well, I think it just means the bottom will be lower. I think that's the way the confidence game has to work itself out. Many of the slightly more sophisticated permabulls know that after we have come down so far, it gets progressively harder to push it lower in the face of fundamentals that do not appear to be changing from day to day. They presume that as we get more and more oversold that we will eventually reach a point where a nasty bear market rally will come into the world with no small fury. But, that is a timer's game and permabulls are terrible timers. Will they get out in time to make a profit on the terrible averaging they did on the way down? I doubt it. Ranges, chart violence, and the emotional toll of failed rallies are like body blows. They may not take the fighter out of the game, but the fighter is progressively weakened. This may take many months, perhaps years. I see no case for a resumption of the bull, and I try hard to force myself to be open to such an idea. No, capitulation will come. It may not be the knockout blow that so many are expecting, but could easily be a ropey-dope, body blow affair that weakens the investor little by little, setting them up for yet another sharp decline that hears them utter quiety "No mas, no mas."