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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (71633)	3/10/2001 4:37:12 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

IS THIS JUST A BUMP IN THE ROAD OR.... It would seem fromthe current enviroment then we are heading into a depression. But could this problem in the TECH world and in our economy work its way through? And could we all ready be out of the worst and into the better and not know it? My answer is simple....YES. With Regulation F.D. It forces many companies to warn now where before thet would not. What I mean is let the problem work its way through the channels. Come the end of the 3rd quarter iy will be clear what I mean, but we are no way near past conditions that warranted such a price depreciation. So those who are shorting, and it looks like 85% of the NASD traders are, say we are heading to 1800, 1500 and or 1200 but I am a firm believer that we have seen the near term bottom today. I base this on sevaral factors but perhaps the best indicator is overall sentiment. We are at the JUST SELL< GET ME OUT< I CANNOT TAKE IT ANYMORE stage. What many investors fail to see is we have a SHORTERS BOTTOM that started probably at 2800 and was doubled down the last 2 weeks. Is anyone admitting we should rally off this level back to 95 trend line? I for one was shorting at the top,long in January, and short at the beginning of Feb, but I went long 2 weeks too early. The current scenerio feels a lot like Fall of 98, and we are actually close to that range. I believe and have since sept that 1800-2000 would be the bottom in 2001, and I am sticking with the 2049. But we are now setting up for a enormous squeeze to 2350 range then a slow but steady move to the 3100-3300 range if not higher by early June. Late in the summer we could revisit the 2000 range but I'm just not sure yet. This is based on both VALUATION and SENTIMENT. Far too many people think we are now heading for 0-negative growth, but I just don't see that. I saw a dramatic slow down in early December that exhaberated and already problematic inventory GLUT in the SEMI's, but we are now hearing about the worst, and I believe its not what many perceive. Good luck to all, and I for one find too many stocks are shorted to the max to allow this state of the NASD to last more then another MORNING!

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (71633)	3/10/2001 12:08:46 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

stockcharts.com Zeev, you have turnips, i have my propeller beanie -g- i my beanie's opinion -g- During late january, i described the jan bounce as a dead cat bounce where the a/d bottomed like september 98, we made a bear flag into the september fomc meeting and did the final leg down in the 98 lows. deju vu all over again. no doubt the sentiment has been bearish lately and fooling many sentiment followers in thinking we have made a selling climax on each down grade from the csco earnings, to the nortel warning, to the now intel downgrade. if you pan down to the weekly nasdaq new highs new lows, you have a perfect elliot pattern in the new lows, with the first leg down into april may 00, then a perfect three drives to a bottom off the september top into the dec/jan bottom. now we should be in the fifth wave down from the march 00 top, this is the reverse of the rally off the late jan 00 low (or could also be compared to the rally off the october 15,99 low), this is the bearish capitulation phase. i doubt we will see anything but consolidation patterns until we get the final selling climax on this leg down. i can't really get an elliot count that works on this leg down, reminds me exactly of the rally off the october 99 lows that just had minor reactions to the trend and turned around, not allowing someone to find a real place to label a countertrend rally. as i've been saying during the bear blow-off phase, as during the bull blow-off phase, those trading against the trend can lose money real quick if you don't carry stops, a lot of these stocks that ipo'd in the last couple of years and then went to $2-400, could be single digit stocks at the bottom (a lot of em already are, but there could be more) all IMBO, of course -g-