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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40170)	3/10/2001 2:21:44 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Perhaps. You certainly have more experience, and a cold-blooded discipline about when and where to plunge that commands respect. But it has to end somewhere, right? and with another rate cut coming soon, and possibly a tax cut, things could well be starting to turn. Moreover, there's a lot of money on the sidelines that isn't going to sit there forever, and won't go back into bonds or pure value either. So it seems like a perceptual problem as much as anything else, with people scared to go back into the water. That could turn upwards again in the spring just like it turned the opposite way in the fall. Anyway, we'll see. The performance of the portfolio I created this week will be a good gauge of who was right; we can revisit it every few months to see how it's doing. tekboy/Ares@permabullvspermafrost.pov

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40170)	3/10/2001 2:43:47 AM
From: semi_infinite	Respond to of 54805

Europe looks like the only strong economic area. Not anymore according to answers given by Intel during Q&A yesterday. Barton Biggs finally looks happy now. He probably thinks the whole information age is a bubble.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40170)	3/10/2001 2:44:25 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> The U.S. economy, or at least the high tech and manufacturing part of it, is heading for a recession. If you said that Malaysia is headed for a recession, I would find it plausible since it's an independent economic entity, but tech is not an isolated sector. Cell phones are used for business calls by MO's sales people, the accounting department at Alcoa uses computers, and Nike, as has been well publicized, uses business planning software. There are ICs in autos, depth finders on boats, and radar on planes. The point I'm making is that I don't think tech can have a recession unless everything has a recession. >> Some of the Gorillas (only some) are getting to where the PE is reasonable, and you aren't paying for earnings a decade away, and you aren't assuming EPS growth rates of 100-300%. Thanks for your studied opinion. It would be a big help if you could help define "reasonable", as we've been searching for a metric. But doesn't it seem strange to you that KO, which grows about 3% YoY, commands the same p/e ratio as CSCO, which grows over 50%? If I were to offer a guess, I'd venture that, as a result of a massive sector rotation, tech is currently very undervalued, and the bubble is in the "defensive" stocks. uf