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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Schulte who wrote (48764)	3/10/2001 11:38:01 AM
From: gamesmistress	Respond to of 57584

For the more adventurous, this man's (Jim Rogers) China picks might be interesting to follow: millenniumadventure.com

To: George Schulte who wrote (48764)	3/10/2001 11:43:34 AM
From: Sharck	Respond to of 57584

Hi George, just catching up on my own reading, that's what weekends are for afterall. Not going to give you any advice here, but just make an observation. While it may seem you have a diversified portfolio, you actually are riding nearly identical companies, except for WMT, all are hi-tech and some are near identical space, specifically NT AMCC CSCO JDSU and GLW. Doesn't speak well for allocation either. No gas/oils, no gold exposure, and only one retailer (btw oils and retail sectors are presently experiencing a nice ride right now). Remember another trading rule is buy dips in a bull mkt, sell short rallys in bears. Good luck to you...

To: George Schulte who wrote (48764)	3/10/2001 12:51:37 PM
From: minorejoy2000	Respond to of 57584

George, I just possibly might be the last one who by all rights should be answering your post. I am answering mainly because my situation so closely resembles yours, except for the margin. Please understand that I am in no way suggesting any advice, but for your consideration, will tell you how I am handling it for what it's worth. I haven't just held this whole time, but have gotten back in after selling at losses, sometimes higher, only to keep watching it slip. For me failing to set stop losses has been the downfall. This is one of the dilemmas as I see it: If you sell now, when would you know to get back in? If NAZ drops to 1800? What if it starts to go up instead? Anything could be a headfake. Wait for a successful break of 3500? 2900? What?We could be talking a long wait. But at the same time, I'd just as soon liquidate something and put the money to work in places that are still in an uptrend, if long is my thing. So my CORV stock and leaps will stand pat, as they are too crushed right now. But maybe JNPR still has a way, as it has not fallen like SCMR or ARBA. So that's what I went by and rotated into things like LMT, LLL, BMET, CPN, CEFT, CMX, ACS, XTO (these aren't recommendations!)---there are a lot of good charts out there, and it also accomplishes a bit more diversification, which can't be bad at times like this. The only hard part about getting into some of these is to try not to chase, yet you could wait forever for some to pull back into what would seem like a good entry. Chasing them just raises the odds at getting stopped out at 7% loss, or whatever, but if no stop loss then riding on faith and hope alone the trend doesn't reverse. But they do pull back, every 6 weeks or so--you just might need to keep the ascending trend in mind and keep re-evaluating good entry prices. Good entry for LLL might have been low 60s in January, 70's in early Feb, but maybe low 80s now. Nice little waves on an ever- ascending trendline. Anyway, this has helped my psychology and optimism level, at least. I tried to find charts that did well in both good and bad NAZ times for as long as possible--not just "safe haven plays" of the moment. Just good to know for my own mental health that not all my stuff is in the "so crushed just hope must be a bounce coming " category. M

To: George Schulte who wrote (48764)	3/10/2001 1:31:06 PM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

George, even the very best traders who made all the right decisions throughout 2000 have found themselves challenged with the same decisions you are pondering here in 2001. We have always said that everyone here should have a rock solid portfolio [bonds, cash, high-yield, etc. . .all equities is never adviseable.] . . tucked away somewhere. . . and that all the trading that occurs here at HOME should be in a separate account that is dedicated to trading only. Best wishes to you, your family and your finances.

To: George Schulte who wrote (48764)	3/10/2001 1:50:24 PM
From: Kanetsu	Respond to of 57584

Alllow me to work off a couple of double espressos...<g> First off, be glad you had 100k to blow in the first place, I hope it's not your whole nut. It is amazing how poorly one can do holding such "great" companies, all of which I am sure are held by the smartest of tech fund managers. Seems your 2 biggest problems were timing (jumping in with both feet at the top of a bubble) and a complete lack of diversification, (likely engendered by the frustration of watching every moron with an Etrade account getting rich without you.) Off the top of my head I would say you could continue to hold the same stocks you have now, but only if they constitute no more than 15% of your net worth, if they do, sell a portion of each of them. What I would not do is hope that you can somehow make back what you lost by staying in the game, unless you can afford to lose it all. Investing is not a new phenomenon, nor is trading, and in the long run, investors usually win and traders usually lose. Like my high school economics drilled into my head "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch." As the espressos are wearing off I will rap it up now... My advice to you (which combined with 80 cents will get you a ride on a bus) is to reduce your risk, give up the trading/tech mentality and buy a diversified mix of mutual funds. I highly suggest the Weitz Value Fund (WVALX) as part of that portfolio. Unless, of course, the money in your Ameritrade account only comprises a small portion of your net worth, and you view that money as risk capital that you enjoy trading, which is another matter. Finally, as I often mention, I can't recommend more highly Lowenstein's biography of Warren Buffet, it's worth more than an MBA ( I realize that might not be saying much).