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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (11249)	3/10/2001 1:11:08 PM
From: cyanideinvestor	Respond to of 37746

i'm sorry to say but you are absolutely wrong. I encourage you to go long so I can be on the other side of the trade. Ignorance is Bliss (for me). this market has still got a ways to go, and I know that you won't believe me, nor anyone else who is long right now. So be it. I really don't care. I'm just telling you to be careful, because you could really get it up the ass. Only time will tell.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (11249)	3/11/2001 1:03:51 PM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 37746

There will eventually be a strong rally, and yes I also beloeve there will be some strong couter trend rallies. That is typical of bear markets. As for the things being so over done...I am not so sure. The same thing could have been said for the Nasdaq reaching 5000...in fact, by historical standards the Nasdaq should never have made it past 2000. The public has gotten so greedy in the last few years, that they don't understand what is normal anymore and have come to expect extreme valuations. This is not normal and never will be. There is no such thing as a new era or a paradigm. It's bogus. Just ask all those from back in 1929 who thought TV, radio, and railroad stocks were the technology wave of the future and would bring in fantastic earnings. Even the so called Blue Chip technology stocks of the era such as RCA, etc lost well over 90% of their peak value and took years to recover. Now I agree that the downside could be limited now as so much has been lost but that does not necessitate the need for a strong snap back either. It is my belief that the Nasdaq will not see 5000, nor 4000 again for several years. In fact, it would not surprise me not to seee 3000 either until late next year. Overall, the economy will be fine and we will thrive as always, but I also don' think this is a temporary bump. The overproduction of the last few years will take a little time to wash out. Technology is great and we will continue to see great things, but it will never warrant extreme valuation. Technology will continue to move forward, new things will come about, and the technology of today will be old throw-aways tomorrow. Just because a company has a good product today and has high growth, does not mean it will have the same next year. There are no guarantees. As for INTC, I agree, AMD is eating away at their market share, but there is now way that this alone could account for such a drastic reduction their revenues. Their problems are a sample of what is rippling through the economy. Do these warnings put in a bottom? Perhaps....but until I start seeing a recovery, I won't make any premature guesses as this slow down could easily last a few more quarters. In short, I am still short the market, but cautiously so and won't hesitate to play both sides when it calls for it. Good luck to you as well.