Hi Earlie, yes we have differences about RMBS, I might have become too cocky with that one (having ridden it up trice without participating in the retrenchments that came every time), I'll turn bearish on it if and only it breaches $29.5, frankly, if that happem it may continue straight to single digit. Right now, in the sub $40 area it is an excellent "trading vehicle". I have still to see anything interesting in the prior art that was dug up by the opposition. Frankly, those lawyers are paid fortunes and they have come up with nothing. They have a 1988 Livermore (If memory serves me) articles about "intentions" to have a register to "manage" packet flow, but , and here is the rub, that register is on a back plane passive bus, the "diametric opposite of Rambus' patents. As strange as it looks, whether RDRAM or DDR DRAM win, is of little concern, I believe that Rambus will be paid roylties on both (on SDRAM as well, but that will be dying in few years anyhow). The funny thing is that RMBS will trade "in parallel" with its arch-rival MU, purely based on pricing and volume of memory, and for the next five to seven years, I see no other alternative, thus, my "fair value" on RMBS (in the right environment, which we are still going to have from time to time), is $150/share. As for OUM, I still think it will not fly in PC memories.
As for AMAT, my target low for the year is not as bad as yours, it is closer to the $25 range, and that is an old target, I was actually surprised that is was as strong as it was, but in order to have turned bullish, it needed to cclose above $51, which it did not (and happy bids, must have had few "trying moments" last week, <g>). You got to be careful with this one (and the semi-equip sector in general), the BTB is already down to .83, and I expect it to go no worse than about .55. If that happens rapidly, and in the next two three months, that would signal, IMTO, a bottom in that sector (at least until April or so of next year where my general scenario becomes even more bearish than it was last year in April). I think that the ringing bel for such a bottom might very well be the second shoe dropping from INTC. I have rekarked elsewhere on these threads, that it is inconceivable for INTC to reduce headcount by 5,000 but to maintain their cap-ex at $7.5 B, unless they plan to do a "Micron" and have all this capacity moth balled like Lehi for few years. If they are going to spend that capex, they have to man the new facilities. My conclusion, INTC will cut a least a billion, maybe more from capex in the next few months, that action will signal, IMTO, the through in the sector as far as stock prices go (give it two weeks or so to sink in, before covering those shorts).
As for AAPL, it was a pure "value" play, with cash at $12/share, last late December I got in just above $14 (it was part of a 10 stocks recemmendation for the longer term, in these difficult times, I posted on "Steve's" thread (by the way, five of which hit new highs last week) and got out above $21 before the last FOMC. If it gets back to the $17/$18 area, there is a pretty good chance it will make a new recovery high probably in the $25/$26 area, for another 50% raid. Not much sense shorting this puppy so close to cash value, which should serve as a "floor to the stock. By the way, a breach of $16.5 would set in motion a retest of the $14 area, but long term players my wonder if it is worth setting such a stop loss. I for one, will. Sure they are going to have two difficult quarters here, but I think that the market already knows that.
Zeev (apologies for few typos, I have to rush out...) |
