To: foundation who wrote (8411 ) 3/10/2001 5:37:04 PM From: Eric L Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197218 Benjamin, Seybold states that gprs networks won't be "up and running" until 2002 >> Many won't. but unlike 1xRTT, comparatively MANY will, and some that have been fully commercial for awhile, (like BT Cellnet) will set the pace. Now, what did Seybold REALLY say on March 1:"I do not believe that 2.5G systems are dead. GPRS and even CDMA2000 1X are considered to be 2.5G systems and both are coming on strong. The issue is going to be one of applications and end-to-end solutions . Providing higher speed networks simply so that users can "surf" the Internet is not going to work. We need applications that permit users to get to the information they want and need quickly. News, weather and sports is not going to make this happen. Speed of the networks are not as much the issue as what the networks permit users to do with data, what they can gain access to and how valuable that access is to them ." After surfing the web this morning on the Kyocera 6035, I sure do concur, speed is not the problem. Data optimization assure that. If this device were MSM5105 powered and Verizon had 1xRTT nationwide today what would I do with it? This is NOT a surfing device ... except for a quick on and off, and some great AvantGo channels push. Sure I could supplement it with a modem for my laptop to use in a pinch in an airport, (dial connections in a hotel room are not a problem) but that is yet another subscription, and more as yet undetermined $. I'm in the > $100/mo range already just with mobile voice. "Applications and end-to-end solutions" are indeed where it's at ... and although this Kyocera is as good as it gets today (it won't be for long) in the handset or "WID" family ... devices have a long, long, long way to go. Please note that Seybolds roadmaps (revised March 01, 2001) show 1xRTT commencing limited deployment Q4, general deployment Q4 2002. He shows GPRS commencing general deployment Q4 2001. Also note that in response to the question "is 1xEV hype or the real deal" he says, "it is a real deal -- in tests -- several sites etc--but until it gets deployed, I won't give it a "it is really real" stamp of approval . As you know, I have great respect for Seybold. His statements need to be taken in context, however, not out of context. Wireless data takeup, is not right around the corner. GPRS is not right around the corner. 1xRTT is not right around the corner. Bluetooth isn't here. <<Durlacher Survey stating the gprs won't "take off" until some time in 2003. It could make for a grumpy Christmas 2001 in Euroland... >> Now, what did Durlacher Survey REALLY say?* GPRS is key enabling technology . Applications, which were developed for WAP over GSM will start to generate revenues only when GPRS is widely available in the mass market (by mid 2002 ). The top revenue-generating services will include mobile multimedia messaging, mobile games and mobile brokerage. Packet-switched GPRS is the key technology enabler for mobile IP and provides a significantly more compelling user experience than existing GSM. The subsequent migration to UMTS will initially add only more spectrum to allow a greater number of users and will later provide more capacity.* WAP will be successful after all . We believe that WAP will eventually emerge successful in Europe despite initial difficulties in generating active users. However, WAP ’s success will lie primarily in the GPRS presentation layer for more phone-centric devices. By contrast, PDAs will be connected to the internet not via WAP but via a conventional HTML-browser. Now in point of actual fact GPRS probably won't take off till 2003, and it is unlikely that 1xWhatever - far "better" (faster & more efficient) technology won't either. Unfortunately the delay in GPRS is NOT healthy for us QCOM investors, IMO. GPRS is the testing ground for W-CDMA and W-CDMA mass deployment is at LEAST one year behind GPRS. Now is anyone here, other than my old buddy Keith (who I am very glad to see poking his head in here again), getting any utility out of that CDMA WAP Crap, which is (here in the "not always on" US as bad as the Euro WAP crap? It sure felt good to get rid of that $6.95/mo I was paying Verizon for the PRIVILEGE of using mQ's "Wild & Wonderful Wireless Web". I am now no longer counted as a US wireless data user, but I'll be using the web more effectively than most US "data" users in a mobile environment. Let's see, at $6.95/mo I'll have amortized the $700 I just blew on phone and accessories in 100 months and can buy another one. I'll be like the typical US mobile user in this country that is still 35% AMPS. You'll be gaming away on your 9xEV-DV AOD/VOD WIDster with antenna that doubles as joy stick, and visual reality visor. << Would MIII find a pleasing symmetry in one gsm carrier (Mobile), one cdma (Telecom), and one with both (Unicom)? >> Unlikely, but one can dream. <g> - Eric -