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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul A who wrote (11261)	3/10/2001 3:42:01 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Excellent post. As you are, I am 90% cash, buying only oversold stocks such as CANI, FRNT, IDTI, that I can hold and ignore over the next six months. The paradox of this market is that as the tech stocks have been decimated and money has flowed to defensive sectors, they have become richly valued and ripe for their own bear markets. For example, Pfizer(PFE) has a PE of 75 with a projected yearly growth rate of 25%, a PEG of 3!. Even many of the former tech high flyers did not have PEG's this high. This is true throughout much of the healthcare & pharmaceutical sector. The retailers have also reached unsustainable PEs. Many have had 50-100% runs since last November, yet they are NOT growing their earnings and many now have PEs between 20-35. For these reasons, money is best kept on the sidelines for sniping on the short side or buying stocks which become oversold due to analyst downgrades.

To: Paul A who wrote (11261)	3/10/2001 3:42:21 PM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Paul the capitulation has already occured, except its in the price of the shares!! Too many people wait for a 3Bil down day to jump in the markets, we did not get that sign in Jan, we did not get that sign last June, and I know in 98 we did not get that sign. I am a trader, and I hate playing the sidelines, so yes I am long and I am down. But from where I play..TRADE 2-3 up days and I'm golden. I have BALLS of steal and the FORTITUDE to take the other side. I have always played this market on opposites a times of divergence and this is no exception. I actually would not doubt if CSCO warned and we rally from there. One more thing that noone wants to talk about, we have a NASD economy. It was the nASD from 90-00 that gave us those government surplus, it was innovation and technology that drove us to 5K and a little over exhuberance, but we still are the leader. Greenspan must stabilze the NASD or we will go into a very, very deep depression.

To: Paul A who wrote (11261)	3/11/2001 8:41:48 AM
From: Sharck	Respond to of 37746

Thanks Paul for that insider perspective. Yes inventory levels and order fills will be the first signs of a turn around. Hand sets, then broadband space then the new applications in that order... Please do keep us posted on any significant changes there.

To: Paul A who wrote (11261)	3/11/2001 1:15:05 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 37746

Good notes Paul...and I think you highlighted some key important concepts....namely the facts that mafacturing orders have literally come to a halt and credit debt is extremely high and is on the verge of bankrupting many americans. Lay-offs are now coming out by the thousands and the stories I am hearing are not getting any better...in fact they are getting worse. Tech jobs that used to be out by the numbers are now difficult to find. Resumes are backing up. People are not able to bargain for their jobs anymore. I also hear that headhunters are even having difficulty finding the jobs. In my own field of science and biotech, it has become so saturated with PhD's you're lucky to get 30k a year right out of grad school with a PhD.