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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (71694)	3/10/2001 6:26:08 PM
From: iod_sherwood	Respond to of 99985

nope... trickle and die off... look at JDSU... no bounce... won't be any "good" news until summer is over i would imagine if it has to do with IT spending. There will be spots in the market where news will run, mergers will happen, contracts will be awarded, but as for a broadbased "rally" into 2500? seriously doubt it... Volatility will die off.. the longer it takes for the SOX to "capitulate" the less likely it'll happen. There is no necessity for the VIX/VXN to pop for this market to "bottom" because it will be a prolonged process as the market re-evaluates the who's who for tomorrow. Good reports of what? Better visibility? they have great visibility right now. It says that the marketplace has excessive inventory of both raw and finished goodes and those still need to get bought. The visibility is just not favourable to the kind of sequential growth they have been accustomed to in the past. 7-month XLNX inventories... heh... capital budgets have been set, the rest of the ad hoc tech spending will be selective and mostly unique to either emerging technology or whatever comes up. if you're looking for powerful rallies... try retail stocks :) Lots of action since the year's started and things look like they could turn around in time for some summer fashions and then take us into the fall/winter with some good shopping!

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (71694)	3/10/2001 8:33:06 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 99985

Tech counter trend rally - yes indeed, when I hear traders saying techs are "dead" that to me is a contrarian indicator. Cheap and oversold, but certainly not dead. Will get nowhere near where were last year but a 25% pop soon is probable. Doesn't take much. A rate hike and a new spin. A few positive reports of gradual recovery. And the mass realisation that "boy some of these stocks are really cheap". A year ago retailers were "dead". They've more than doubled since. And what has changed? Not much. If you want to play it safe, at least the big telcos and Baby Bells offer good value. Lots of PE's in the 11 range with plenty of grwoth prospects going forward. But even micro dot-bombs might be great buys now, some like SCNT selling at less than cash on hand. Other cheap doggies well below book are LOR, ESHR, etc. The big techs NT, SUNW, CSCO, EMC all arguably cheap. On and on. We'll get a rally out of this. Next week might even be a positive one for techs with the rate cut expected in just 9 days