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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (40213)	3/12/2001 1:39:05 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

> If the Cisco history is one we can continue to expect to see repeated in coming years, i.e., > steep downsides being followed by steep upsides such that the net over time is to > make the downsides more buying opportunities than negative impacts, Yeah, but that still means that anyone who bought at "downside" (I don't say bottom) will be much better off than someone who bought at the "upside" (I don't say top). >then the GGamer who plunged in at last year's peaks may take a little longer to be happy about his >or her returns, but in the long term context it will matter little. Maybe, but that's where I disagree with pure GG. I would not have bought ANY company at the last year's valuations even if it was G-od. But then most G&Ks are still at valuations above my threshold of reasonable value. (I own INTC, MSFT, ORCL) >Indeed, if we assume that the investment is going to be made in tech Bad assumption. I don't see why tech is better than non-tech. I even partially agree with Buffett that KO is better than tech including G&Ks in some respects. I would buy SGP here-now before I would buy G&Ks, but then I have a load of Invesco Health already. >so that we don't have to deal with the issues of tech versus pork bellies and real estate, then pretty much >by definition someone plunging in a year ago will have lost a lot by now. Hmm, I bought TSG last year (is that tech or non-tech?). It is somewhere above or a bit below my buy price in different lots. How about SNPS? How about ASYT any time after September (this is a bit unfair)? >Aren't Gorillas still the best choice for confidence and predictable potential? Yes, at a right price that is almost never reached. Hmm. I don't quite see why we are discussing this all. I am not trying to persuade someone to use valuation metrics. For some companies, they are almost impossible to use (QCOM, RMBS). I can't even say I have a reliable 100% solution to valuation. Also I will lose a lot of upside if irrational runup occurs again and may not get an opportunity to buy younger G&Ks at all (SEBL, NTAP). So, pick your strategy and make your choices. Jurgis - On irrational runup will buy TAVFX