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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2325)	3/11/2001 12:01:26 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Nice. Both of you. Perhaps I join in from another angle? I happen to agree with the sniper-scope from afar stance although the sheeple on the topic-threads seem to think you must either be long or short. Like the no-decision decision, there is always the no-position position. Which is mine right now. My helicopters and battleships were already safely far away from the kill zone since last summer. A few hummers on the back roads of Canada are doing remarkably well. Maybe some dents, but they've picked up stuff along the way. Two SUVs on the tech test track suffered tire damage & rollover. Impressive how quickly one can go from zooming in the fast lane in leather seats with CD booming quad stereo at one minute to being pinned upside down within crumpled metal the next. Thankfully it is only money. Many of my friends have jobs as crash-test dummies (work in tech, paid in tech stock options). They are hurting these days. I don't know what my job is. Therefore, I doubt that the Internet has improved my productivity by much at all, despite brave claims to the contrary. Maurice: <<The fact that people put a high value on something with no value doesn't mean there was any value actually there. Investing in Santa Claus doesn't create an actual Santa Claus so when the tree has no presents under it and the value suddenly goes 'poof', nothing has been lost to the world.>> I thought this was brilliant, and I will quote it Maurice. Your neurons are clearly well entwined. I am less concerned about Santa Claus than about the Easter Bunny though. Many children may be sorely disappointed to find rabbit doo-doo instead of chocolates when it comes time to collect eggs for their nest. Jay: where did you get that impressive collection of quips and quotes? Many I have never seen before. I didn't see you mention Oliver's Law of Location: "Wherever you go, there you are". Doesn't help with investment decisions, but it does prevent one from feeling lost and in need of 3G locator technology. My 1.5G phone rings and I can talk to other people who can't reach me unless I want them to. Works for me. I will wait a few G's before I spend a few Gs on an upgrade and by then maybe it will cost nearly nothing like this one. I am a terrible customer: I want "money for nothing and my chics for free". It is now getting to that part of Sunday where I must be sleeping (the very first part of it), so I will sign off. Great contributions from both you Jay and Maurice. Thank you, and good sniping. John.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2325)	3/11/2001 4:24:56 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I wrote a pretty long article for my website this morning. Part of it has a chart of the 1929 bear market. What is shocking is that the Nasdaq has fallen faster in this first year of the bear market than the DOW did in 1929. check out the article timingwallstreet.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2325)	11/8/2008 8:43:31 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

TJ, having a click around history, this bears repeating: < Grossman's Misquote Complex problems have simple, easy to understand wrong answers. > So do the other quotes you gave. Meanwhile, regarding your "today's post" Message 25156894 Yes, all as I described at the peak and recommended it as a great profit-making opportunity. As you can imagine, I am on the right side of those major Icelandic-style moves. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2325)	11/12/2008 3:21:20 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, it's nearly 8 years since that post of yours. Look at platinum $805 or so, gold down some more, you have a great chance to pump more oil stocks on board at $52 a barrel = imagine how much gain you'll get when your $200 a barrel figure comes in. How are the photovoltaics doing? At $52 a barrel they can't be that great but get in now and when oil is $200 you'll be in business. Meanwhile, QCOM at about $32 which is great news. I now don't have to think about selling [which I had to do at $56 after the Nokia agreement]. I might load another tranche onto my Tonka Truck though my concentrated position is already not what financial advisors would advise. I am listening carefully for when they ring the bell at the bottom of the stock market decline so that I can buy a lot of houses or shares or something. The last 'bottom' didn't look like a bottom to me. Sure enough, down we go again. The 1929 to 1933 Dow graph is interesting. There were a few steps down, with each "bottom" obviously leading to yet more disappointment and a lower bottom. Politicians love to get involved and "save" things as they always do, which leads to things being worse than if the politicians just stayed home in bed or went to the beach or something. I haven't seen Big Ben's helicopter in my vicinity, tossing bales of bucks out, so things can't be too bad yet. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2325)	11/14/2008 8:19:30 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, if QCOM is $5 a share I will be very happy if the P:E ratio reduces proportionately as it has done so far as the share price has gone from $56 to $32. Gold, which pays no dividend, would not thrill you if it goes to $5 an ounce [which is nigh on impossible]. Come to think of it, now that you draw my attention to the idea, if after buying the shares I had never known what the share price was but had simply received dividends into my account, I would be as happy as a little piggy in mud. If I found that the shares are now $5 a share with the current profits of over $2 per share and dividends of 64c a share, I'd be delighted as the shares cost me less than $1 [split adjusted]. Better still, I would have avoided the wealth effect which led me into a foolish investment in Globalstar Telecommunications Limited. But let's look at energy, which is what coal, oil, gas, photovoltaics, windmills and great guns are. Energy is fungible, more or less, with some lags, lead times, transition costs and technology moves. Coal is oil is gas is plants is silicon is wind is bitumen is uranium is concrete is aluminium sort of more or less near enough for government work, to a greater or lesser extent. Yes, it's true that my calculator won't have a nuclear reactor, Stirling engine or windmill powering it. Nor will remote telephones powered by photovoltaics be dismantled and converted to ethanol turbiness. But there is an interface at which people choose one or other energy source, material, and all the other options they can take. As oil becomes expensive, people slip away to other things. As coal becomes cheaper, people pile on. As uranium reactors become cheaper, people download another reactor. As photovoltaics become an option, people go off the grid [no more power surge or black-out] <as to solar, project is going great guns, and by what you wrote on the subject, regarding oil and such, it is clear to me you have not a clue about what solar is all about oil can go to 20/brl for all i care as long as coal stays high and gas remain firm because the electricity price you pay has nought to do with the price of oil or the value of salami it has everything to do with what your utility supplier charges you for kWh in fact, the very good thing about the current environment is that the entrenched technology and players in solar space will be less challenged by new entrants and geewhizbang distruptives, and that the officialdoms will be spending more of everyone else's money to build out national infrastructure in alignment with perceived imperatives oil sinking to 20/brl does not change the imperative you must be confused by forced sale with permanent price discount, as if oil was discovered in massive quantities on the moon> Yes, oil is a small enough part of the total energy equation that it takes BIG price moves to really get the crowds moving en masse. But at $20 a barrel, or $10 a barrel, a LOT of people will start using it in bulk. At $150 a barrel, there is squeaking and squealing everywhere as engines and drivers run out of lubricant and seize up. People like you start ogling spunky young nubile things such as photo-voltaic silicon, throwing your money at it, buying up large. Pretty soon, the lovable Saudis who provide the world with so much news, funding jihad around the world, are feeling the pinch. The Russians feel the squeeze. The Venezuelans and Tobagans start cutting prices. This is not to decry photovoltaics of which I have been a paid up fan club member since the 1980s [I was pushing BP to invest and they were doing it successfully]. For many years I have had a plan to plant Australia in umbrellas of photovoltaics which would convert sea water to hydrogen and oxygen which would drive turbines and produce water and make the deserts lush with crops under the umbrellas [which would prevent too much sun but allow just enough] while providing electricity to cities. Can you supply me with 1 million km2 of photovoltaics? How much would you charge? A quote would be appreciated. Let's assume 100,000 km2 per year. Meanwhile, if oil goes to $20 per barrel, coal will not stay high and gas will come down too. I haven't watched coal prices - wow they have zoomed, but the way is down now... fast... eia.doe.gov Fungibility rulz ok. Mqurice