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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (49794)	3/11/2001 12:53:55 AM
From: pass pass	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

You probably think you're God right now, just like the longs in early 2000. You probably think you know the market like the back of your hand right now. But you know what? This is the sign. No one knows the market. One lesson I learned from this tech wreck is that: always be humble, respect the market.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (49794)	3/11/2001 5:00:37 AM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 77400

hey dude. how popular were you...

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (49794)	3/11/2001 2:30:30 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 77400

I wonder if Cisco will ever trade back to its all-time high, on an inflation-adjusted basis. Assuming that a four-bagger overnight is unlikely, consider what it would take to do a four-bagger in constant dollars over 20 years. Cisco would have to outperform the market to do so. Assuming 3% inflation, it would need better than a 7-bagger by 2020 to reach $82 in year 2000 dollars, or a terminal price of about 148 in 2020 (in nominal dollars). Multiply that by 16.433 billion shares (my assumed Cisco share count, based on assumption of 4% growth in share count compounding annually) and you have a market cap of 2.43 trillion, or approximately 25% of current US GDP. If my calculations and assumptions are in the ball park, this implies a market cap expansion of 15.759 times the current diluted market cap in nominal dollars. I don't believe this is likely, but it would be incredible if it happened. As Dennis Miller would say, that's just my opinion, and I could be wrong.