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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (43471)	3/11/2001 9:44:04 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jerome, The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) will not reach the dizzying heights of March last year, when it peaked above 5,000, any time soon, money managers say. It could even be years before the index recoups its 56 percent loss since then. ``There is a concern we won't get the big rebound,'' said Donald Berdine, chief investment officer at Pittsburgh-based PNC Advisors, which oversees $43 billion in assets. ``We may not see 3500 for years.'' These were the same people calling for Nasdaq 6000 last year. They were wrong then; what makes you think they are right now? The market overdoes it on the upside and the downside. To make predictions about where any index will be 3-5 years from now is a foolhearty game, especially with the economy being in the toilet. That being said, unless we revert to the abacus, a massive retooling is going to take place in this sector come hell or highwater not too long from now. Its Jan 2003 and is AMAT ever going to break 56 Split adjusted that is:-) Brian

To: Jerome who wrote (43471)	3/11/2001 10:39:09 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

biz.yahoo.com Jerome, As the inventory correction which is occurring intersects with a gradual recovery which ultimately spreads to new tech purchases by now reluctant companies, tech should rise again. That's why intc maintains its capex spending. The article above draws such a conclusion I believe and the timing still seems to be this year, not next. Nasdaq should anticipate this in advance. So fundamentally, everything points to a bottom, even if we take a flop(maybe another 10% with an air of panic) thru 2000 in the next few days. Or perhaps we will rise from these levels without a necessity for a fall. Mike PS Did you read historian JK Galbraiths op ed piece today and what appeared to be Paul Krugmans response. Krugman is a liberal economist arguing for an active, almost inflationary fed. That's my view of how we might have gotten to this current state is the failure of AG to accept a point or two of additional inflation in the short term in order to guarantee a soft landing. He raised rates too much. Now he needs to lower them just as quickly and again risk a little inflation(grease) into the equation.