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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Square_Dealings who wrote (2524)3/11/2001 2:48:02 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237
 
<<Long or Short on heavy margin at this juncture in the market is a recipe for a lot of money to be lost.>>

I think you may be missing the point. Any short position at all requires use of margin for 50% of the market value of the securities shorted. This is not foolish leverage, it's part of the basic rules for shorting.

For example, I was short several semi stocks last week, total short position about 50% of my trading account. Schwab was showing a margin balance of half this, i.e. about 25% of my account.

So you can see, it wouldn't take much shorting to make margin numbers look really high.

If it turns out that margin usage associated with shorting is excluded from the statistics Hahn cited, then I apologize. But I don't believe that's the case.



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (2524)3/11/2001 2:54:43 PM
From: XBrit  Respond to of 52237
 
Follow-up to my reply: please email Hahn a copy of my message and ask him to comment. I don't subscribe to Hahn because my impression of his stuff when it was free was that he is too apt to fire off wild, extreme comments and predictions. I believe he was predicting immediate war in the middle east in one of his last free pieces.

Message 15483318



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (2524)3/11/2001 3:31:05 PM
From: stomper  Respond to of 52237
 
michael, FWIW, I don't know either way for fact, but a quick search of google lists many non-official references that state margin debt peaks were close to 270 billion in March of last year.

-dave