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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (43494)	3/11/2001 7:12:27 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The 95-96 slump came after 3 very strong years for the industry. I believe it was the last industry specific downturn we have had. AMAT was the largest then, but there were questions about the quality of its technology. AMAT was thought of as being behind LRCX in etch technology and NVLS in CVD technology. AMAT did not have CMP, which it dominates, and metrology then and was just beginning to roll out RTP, which it dominates. INTC was perceived as a dominant technology growth company while AMAT a large cyclical. I don't use PSR for bottom valuations because sales and orders are big unknowns then. Book and Cash are known and relatively stable (book flat to down reflecting brakeven or loss; cash up as AR and inventory go down).

To: Sam Citron who wrote (43494)	3/12/2001 1:40:03 AM
From: brunn	Respond to of 70976

Re Intel's outperformance of AMAT in 1995-96: In 1996 Intel was more dominant than they are today with about 90% market share vs. today's of 70-80% (I believe.) Also, I believe that Intel's business is more directly tied to the PC compared to AMAT--in 1996 this helped them, and now it is hurting them, although they certainly are trying to move more and more beyond the PC. Finally, 1996's downturn was all about too much DRAM. This problem was AMAT's problem but not Intel's problem--it actually may have worked to Intel's advantage because the lower DRAM created lower computer prices which in turn helped total computer sales (and more Pentium sales.)