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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78546)	3/11/2001 5:47:47 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

By so much above 300 -- you simply mean CBs, right? Will you change your analysis if gold should hit 350/oz this year? Can you fairly analyze gold simply in terms of supply and demand when in addition to the overhang you mention (as if CBs would simply sell and keep selling to cap the price until supplies were exhausted and producers would continue to sell foward into such a rise) -- there is also a paper market that is heavily short and one which is at least an order or two in magnitude larger than one years production?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78546)	3/11/2001 10:14:35 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<The real question is how does one reflect a "required weakness" in the dollar (in face of ever growing balance of payment deficits, reaching soon 4% of GDP), when other leading currencies have all problems of their own? > The U.S. is printing money < I think that the Euro is a flawed currency and will eventually disintegrate, or be reduced to a minimal fictional currency. > I think you are wrong, but it's irrelevant really. If the politicians in weaker parts of the zone attempt to debauch the currency the Dmark will just take back it's prior position as the continents premier currency [with SF to some extent] and replace it. IMO the Germans have done the rest of the continent a huge favor in joining in the single currency... the DM would have ended up the continental currency by default. So own either of those 3 and short the dollar. It's simple supply and demand, no one is printing like the Fed. <. Gold will not enter the monetary equation, IMHO, unless we are going to face extremely serious calamities, and I don't see that, at least not right now.> Look, Gold is priced like there is NO chance of serious calamity [as you put it] and yet if you look at the equity & debt markets or look at the latest economic anecdotes things are clearly deteriorating... so what you have IMO is AT LEAST a misvalued asset and more probably one somewhat cheaper yet. In fact you don't need a serious calamity for gold to move, just the perception that there might be one. Quite frankly I find it hard to believe that at this point in the cycle, with the current leverage in the economy, virtually every economic entity [individuals,companies, governement] planning on 'rosie scenario's return, there isn't a hell of a lot more panic. BWTFDIK, I'm in cash, gold, and poooots... so it shows what a nut I am.... {on the other hand it's been a hell of a year this quarter}. DAK