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To: DataBits who wrote (88526)	3/11/2001 8:33:25 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ok, we'll see.

To: DataBits who wrote (88526)	3/12/2001 3:24:14 AM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Remember."A stockbroker is a person that will invest your money till it is all gone".

To: DataBits who wrote (88526)	3/12/2001 9:40:18 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Data Bits - re: Whodathunkit ? your comment: ========================= <"Whodathunkit" lingo is at all time peak! It is time to buy and be fully invested with some margin. A trough for the DOW has been set on February 23 at approximately 10,300. I predict the DOW will set a new ALL TIME HIGH some time in 2001 and meanwhile will not break below 10,300 with any significance. NASDAQ will have set it's trough before end of March 2001. March 12-19th, maybe sooner rather than later, is ultimate buying period for this major trough period. After March 19th, the NASDAQ will have a MASSIVE SPRING RALLY and sell off some of these gains during April-May. This is why A.J.C. and other analysts are fully invested during the month of March and into April. ">> ================= DataBits... I think you've missed the Big Picture. It should be that Abbey J-Cohen, Joe Battapaglia, Tom Galvin et al - have been asking why anyone would dump Cisco at THE bottom sub $40, then it was THE bottom at $35, then THE bottom at $30, then $25 and now sub $20 ? By last count; 42 analysts, 124 CNBC guests & 9 Financial Magazine Articles have called "THE" Cisco/Tech Bottom on a total of 1,329 different occassions at an average price of CSCO $33.28 & NAZ 2842 by my calculations since September alone(VBG).... Can CNBC's little Tommy walking the NAZ wall - actually tell us one more time with a straight face; that "Cisco holding here - will signal a NAZ bottom" ? Maybe your "byte" should have been: "Whodathunkit - another deja vu Tech Bottom Call - all over again"....rolfmao~ It seems to me; that I've read this same take from other pundits & posters on a continual basis all the way down from NAZ 3500 as THE bottom back in Sept. ... sooner or later; you, or one of the pundits will surely be right; but it's been a painfull ride down & most importantly bits; you're missing the entire point of the "Best Offense - being a Good Defense !" - ie: ... the Cash-Cave Dwellers are the only ones who will in reality be in a position to deploy massive amounts of capital to buy the REAL bottom; since we haven't been averaging in & doubling down since NAZ 3500... we ARE patiently waiting for THE recovery off of THE bottom and we WILL be tech investors again - but the smart money/risk vs reward play will be to gladly give up a few hundred upside NAZ points off of the eventual REAL bottom; to enter on positive fundamental economic & sector recovery - not a technical, or short-covering led DCB & definitely NOT trying to "guess" & grab a falling knife; blind-folded (the one caveat being an obvious capitulation selloff ala Oct 1998) - because without ANY positive guidance from the Tech sector; with coninual lowered estimates, with continued misses - anyone buying here is doing so "Blind Folded" & obviously so...also add in the missed opportunity costs by those who failed to take profits & raise cash on the Nat Gas Top Rally & into any & all OSX moves of late; yet alone those who chose not to short, or buy puts atop these moves; or to avoid tech, use stops, or just take their scalps... and then there is the Gold move here as well ~ If that's your style - have at it... MeThinks the falling knife Tech Crowd is presently playing with either a cost basis of about NAZ 2800, or with a fraction of their original capital - so it hardly matters if the NAZ ultimately rallies from 1650-1800,or here at 2100ish to 2800 again; as they'll merely be even & they also have the "missed opportunity" cost of missing some longsided scalps, some short runs , the Gold move etc... The real damanage will however be to those who got it WRONG on both ends - ie: rolling over in the Oilpatch Cycle by failing to take profits into the rallies and being a Hog that got slaughtered vs a Pig that got fat and by doubling down & chasing Tech way, way, way too early... Thank God; it doesn't take much to feed a Chihuahua ...maybe SI will start a food bank collection center for the "Plastik-Fantastik" crowd soon (VBG)... Also to the point of this not being a Bear Market because the DOW, or S&P performance - I don't quite buy that. The vaporization of capital to money heaven; as we've seen in tech - was avoided by few mutual funds, or institutional investors - most, if not many; were over-weighted to tech. Your point is only valid for the "Buffet-esque" type of investors - who avoided tech like the plague & their numbers are quite obviouly far & few between. In all due repspect; that invalidates your premise of there being no Bear Market...because "so far" the DOW and S&P have been somewhat spared. Additionally much of the present stength in the DOW & S&P is because of continual rotation out of tech - and perhaps the 2nd shoe in this Bear has yet to drop - so I wouldn't be so sure that the DOW, or S&P have made it out of the woods yet... Which method, or which thread will ultimately prove most profitable and correct; can only be proven in the fullness of time; but right here - right now; the score "aint" even close... The Cash-Cave Dwellers are on a rout ... ===================================================================== PS: re the Nat Gas E&P's Did Barrons spell it out any easier for the PermaBull NG crowd ? Why would APA , or APC go to new highs with lower 2002 eps AND cfps numbers than 2001 numbers ? Add to that - the problem in generating production growth that everyone keeps pointing to - as creating a floor to NG prices. That knife cuts both ways people... lower combined O&G commodity prices, lower 2002 eps & cfps numbers AND flat production growth - do NOT make for new highs - HELLO !?!?!?! Much of this additional strength in the E&P's of late was quite obviously the flow of rotational funds to safety - this type of rotation should ALLWAYS be sold into imho & those who did not - missed their second & perhaps last opportunity to roll out & take profits at, or near the top. And this last little pop on the Barrett takeout play is yet another selling/profit taking opp. RE: The Nat Gas E&P's -this is not the "BIG-EASY MONEY" - throw a dart point of the cycle; we are at the maturing peak of the cycle with the peak eps & cfps numbers having had allready, or just now passing before out eyes... this is when one must continually be "AVERAGING OUT" on all positive news, or rallies and this is cyclical investing 101 people... Later cycle plays - ie: offshore drillers & select service are the plays in this mature point of the cycle; but even here - one must STILL aggressively sell rallies and CONTINUALLY have one eye on the possibility of EVERY single rally being the top that turns to cyclical rollover - that is the ONLY way to exit a cyclical cycle with a high percentage of the profits from the cycle. The "last man standing at the TOP" philosophy is a fools game & should obviously be so. Smart Money that has been a longterm cycle player here - should hope to miss the ultimate top by 20+/- points in the OSX - literally. Personally; if the US economy does not downshift to a lower gear and if Japan does not trigger a global crisis; the OSX has the potential to go to 165ish imo - so given the still 3-4 quarters away from producing the eps numbers that most driller & service stocks need to show, to endorse that OSX 165ish valuation level; it's prudent to view 135-140 as THE wall; untill bottomline numbers prove otherwise. Continue to play the OSX as a rolling-wave trading range - that may slowly continue to build upward bias; but untill we have a quarter where they literally blow the numbers out of the water - sell the rallies... One last time; concerning the Nat Gas E&P's - Do stocks, especially CYCLICAL stocks (HELLO !) go to new highs into declining sequential earnings & cash flow estimates ? ... this is not even hard people. This about "When, not IF" rollover acceleration occurs... and in case no one has noticed; untill proven otherwise - the TOP has allready occured; as in "THE TOP" occuring in this past December for the E&P's. I'll be curious to see if many threadsters apply the "lessons learned" from the NG top here; to the coming OSX rollover as well... as it "aint" far away - if last Septembers 140 top itself; wasn't even the cycle top... There is no percentage in trying to become the Last Perma-Bull standing at THE top of the Nat Gas E&P, or the Driller/Service CYCLES (keyword there - cycles, as in cyclical).... especially when we have simultaneous rotation trading opps; both long & short in tech, or other cyclicals like Gold/Silver etc... and most interestingly; when Cash becomes a dirty word; is when it's use is most warranted & rewarded imho... Cash... you can't "really" buy THE BOTTOM - without it... Back to the Yellow-Cave~ and the NAZ breaks 2000 .... WHODATHUNKIT ~ !?!?!?!?!?!? Sorry, you didn't "get Gold" ?