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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sea Otter who wrote (71775)	3/11/2001 8:54:54 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Sea Otter, you really need to take only the ten largest cap in the naz and calculate their combined PE, I doubt that it will be much higher than 32 or so. I did that calculation a month or so back and it was 35. Zeev

To: Sea Otter who wrote (71775)	3/11/2001 9:02:27 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

I agree, and I think there will be more pain to come. Of course there should be at least one good rally that will bring out all the proclamations of new highs...new bull markets etc. I think this will be a traders market for the next 12 to 24 months, and I've been preparing accordingly. US dollar looks to me like it's rolling into a nice head and shoulders pattern. Another great bear market rising wedge breakdown, rally back to resistance and breakdown/ rollover into the H/S. If it breaks support at the 50dma then takes out the neckline it will be continued trouble for equities. This has been a very powerful pattern of late that seems to follow through a lot... stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyymy[de][pa92!a105!b50!f][vc60] This particular H/S measures to around 92 if validated. God help us all<gg>

To: Sea Otter who wrote (71775)	3/11/2001 10:50:35 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

An outright comparison is not accurate as there are there non tech stocks with P/E well above 80 (SBUX, STPL) who were run up recently, and several DOT.COM with negative earnings (EXDS, RNWK,INKT and so on) actually it surprised me that they included hot air stocks into the index. Haim dynamic.nasdaq.com

To: Sea Otter who wrote (71775)	3/12/2001 2:00:29 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Re A Naz of 1000 is a reasonable fair valuation. Where do you see the Dow? A naz of 1000 would be a beautiful thing for anyone with a 10+ year outlook, but you better park your money in cash in the meantime because the Dow will have to fall about as hard. A Naz of 1000 would bring all the majors (INTC, Dell, Sun, Cisco) into the teens--even with decreasing earnings. How many people will want to buy Proctor and Gamble or Coke at a higher price than high tech? May be high tech will have a year or two of bad earnings but PG and KO have had 3+ years of no growth and still have P/E's of 20's to 30's.