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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milo_morai who wrote (129811)	3/11/2001 11:55:32 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

We appear to be at one of those famous inflection points everyone likes to talk about. Last quarter Intel made 32 cents per share with about a fifth of that being from investment gains. This quarter there will be almost no gains. 32 x .8 = 26 Last quarter Intel had GM of 58%, this quarter its 52%. 26 x 52/58 = 23 Revenue from operations is expected to be down about 25% from last quarter. 23 x .75 = 17 Historically, Intel has made about a quarter of its profits in the first quarter, and traded at a P/E of around 25. .17 x 4 x 25 = $17 Now we see rumors of a Tier 1 vendor going with AMD chips in SMP servers. There have also been rumors of Tier 1 vendors moving to AMD chips for notebooks. $17 looks like a ceiling rather than a floor for Intel. If AMD doesn't warn, it should be able to avoid the downdraft - it's got to be getting obvious that there's more going on than just a bad sales environment. Dan

To: milo_morai who wrote (129811)	3/12/2001 8:36:45 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 186894

Re: AMD's Athlon lands slot in IBM's server line The particular application listed here is quite a surprise. Having the first use of a new processor configuration be something as exotic and critical as a front end server may seem a bit strange at first. But it is consistent with my speculation that Athlon is particularly well suited for server applications with a great many threads and/or many small processes. A front end processor maintains the sessions of a multitude of users connected to a server cluster, not doing a lot of work for any particular process (it "forwards" each request to a server in the cluster). It does need to quickly cycle many relatively independent threads. This is exactly the kind of application where the increased set associativity of the Athlon core puts it at a huge advantage over PIII/P4 Xeon and Itanium. Two Athlon cores may well be the equivalent of 4 Xeon cores in this application. 4 Xeon cores can cache 32 LSB addresses. 2 Athlon cores can cache 36 LSB addresses (likely least significant byte or starting location on the page for each process). That fact would make SMP Athlon a pretty compelling solution for these servers, maybe enough to cause IBM to take this particular plunge. It's a surprising, almost unbelievable place for the initial use of a new chipset. But, in this increasingly cost conscious market, the price advantage of a dual Athlon system compared to a quad Xeon system must be enormous. If there's any truth to this story, it puts AMD in the enterprise server space, right off the bat. It may also cap Intel's progress into the enterprise space. If your front end system goes down, your cluster is off line. Some people are still leery of using Intel systems in such an application, much less AMD! Regards, Dan

To: milo_morai who wrote (129811)	3/14/2001 6:50:59 AM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Milo, don't you just hate it when this happens? " Sun comes on strong in server sales " yahoofin.cnet.com The great Wintel click appears to be dying a slow death. AMD doesn't need DELL. Wouldn't hurt if SUNW increased their usage of AMD products. steve