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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10674)	3/12/2001 10:36:52 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

QCOM Sales-$2.7 Billion / Cap-$39.1 billion MOT Sales-$37.6 billion / Cap-$34.0 billion ERICY Sales-$30.9 billion / Cap-$65.6 billion NOK Sales Sales-$28.3 billion / Cap-$106.9 billion NT Sales-$30.3 billion / Cap-$54.7 billion LU Sales-$31.6 billion / Cap-$42.0 billion Of the five companies which are used as comparision to Qualcomm....4 are going to lose money during the first quarter. Nokia and Qualcomm are the only two which will be profitable....and Qualcomm is the only tech company I know of that has affirmed first quarter guidance. Since around a 1/3 of QCOM's revenues are derived from royalties (90% margins), the Price to Sales metric really cant be used to value Qualcomm (especially compared to telecom manufacturers). At least for me...the only to provide a real valuation for Qualcomm is to estimate the market for CDMA cell-phones in 3-5 years. If W-CDMA is commercialized by 2003, I think a clear case can be made that Qualcomm is dramatically undervalued. If W-CDMA were to be delayed to 2005, the case for Qualcomm would depend on the roll-out of CDMA in China/India and the success of data services in the US/Japan/Korea. In either case, Qualcomm's valuation is far more dependent on your view of the future of wireless than on traditional P/S metrics. Q's future discounted cash flows will vary dramatically depending on the scenario which ends up unfolding... Slacker

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10674)	3/12/2001 11:13:50 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike, Slacker answered your question well. Also, those other companies bought licences from QUALCOMM and compete with each other to sell CDMA, which is going to take over all wireless communications. QUALCOMM gets about 5% royalty in what is one of the world's great monopolies - the monopoly over talking on mobile phones. Check out the growth rate of QUALCOMM and my guess is that two years from now, the trailing earnings will be making the current share price look very cheap. In a recession, people will go right on using cellphones and will buy and use them even more as they try to earn money instead of flopping around a beach somewhere without having to earn money and no need to talk on a cellphone all the time. Mqurice