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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 9:59:40 AM
From: Murrey Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

<BUY THIS MARKET IF YOU CAN.> Vster...not trying to sound cheesy, but what would you buy? Lot of people out there are saying NAZ 1500 is possible. The old grate is beginning to look mighty comfortable about now. <G>

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 10:03:29 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

A view from Briefing.com's porch.. <VBG>... [Briefing.com] Tech Stock Analysis General Commentary Updated: 12-Mar-01 <<And the hits just keep on coming... Prior to Friday's trading, Intel (INTC 29 7/16 -3 13/16) guided quarterly estimates sharply lower, citing weakness in PC demand and generally lousy macroeconomic conditions... That news was a major factor behind the Nasdaq's slide to new a 52-wk low. Then, just before the close of trading Friday, Cisco (CSCO) announced sizable job cuts (5500-8000 full & temporary workers), which would result in a one-time charge of about $300-$400 mln... Company also noted that it expects a wider range of estimates for the remainder of the year... A not so subtle way of suggesting that there's limited visibility for the foreseeable future, and that the likelihood of an earnings disappointment just increased... CSCO closed at 20 5/8, a new-52 wk low and its lowest price since December of 1999. Other tech heavyweights that established new lows on Friday included: Brocade (BRCD 27 3/8 - 5 15/16), EMC (EMC 34.35 -2.80), Sun Microsystems (SUNW 17 1/2 -2 13/16), i2 Tech (ITWO 19 1/2 -1 15/16), Siebel Systems (SEBL 27 5/16 -1 1/4) and Broadcom (BRCM 38 9/16 -2 3/8). Considering how many tech companies have already issued earnings warnings for Q1, you would think that at some point the din of negative news would diminish. It looked like that point had been reached early last week when the sector shrugged off some negative preannouncements and pressed higher... But the Yahoo! (YHOO), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO) stories killed the recovery but quick. Traders were also disappointed by Friday's jobs data, as they assumed that the stronger than expected jump in non-farm payrolls would keep the Fed from acting aggressively on rates. Not true. The employment report is a lagging indicator. The Intel and Cisco news prove that. As companies begin to follow through on announced layoffs the unemployment figure will rise. To make a long story short, the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points on the 20th. Short-covering ahead of that event is the sector's best chance for a bounce this week... But conviction will remain low until earnings visibility improves, and right now that doesn't look likely until some time in quarter three or four. There are short-term technical opportunities in tech, but the market risk is very high... Consequently, traders considering buying oversold issues in anticipation of a bounce need to be prepared to weather potentially extreme short-term volatility.>> Robert Walberg Used with permission of Briefing.com

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 10:14:28 AM
From: George Schulte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

V Good advice but sad but true a lot of us dont have any $$$$$ left to buy I can not imagine anyone selling unless they have margin worries

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 10:19:05 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

tom...."buying the market and falling knives" avoiding falling knives is prudent, as is buying this market....bearish, no.....actually see value in many stocks that have fallen, bounced several times, and are easy to pick up by the handle...... buy that which is basing, has tested its low and has sound fundamentals is lower risk then trying to call a bottom, be it in the indices or stock specific...and even being prudent doesn't negate the poor overall psychology... slow bleed=eventual capitulation....just takes a lot longer to pass out.... low interest rates = eventual higher share price.... good luck ed a.

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 10:28:57 AM
From: Dave Pestle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Voltaire, I have not read all your posts, but I have checked in occasionally during the markets decline from naz 5000. I have much less experience in the market than you, and I'm sure I've made many more blunders in the maket than you or most people for that matter. But as I make them, I try to change my approach and adapt. To be honest, I don't see much difference in your thinking from the 5000's to the 1900's, except for blaming the fed. At each level of the naz...5000, 4000, 3000, 2000...I've read "the houses will not let it go down much more". I know you preach to stay with your convictions, but how can you watch the market move against you for so long and not change these convictions? Dave

To: Voltaire who wrote (33048)	3/12/2001 10:32:15 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

When you see comments like these YOU KNOW we may be getting near the bottom... Message 15486431 Message 15486328 There is A BOATLOAD of fear and frustration out there....Many now feel the FED is incompetent and out of touch. It's crunch time for Greenspeak--> his legacy is on the line. IMO, he should consider an inter-meeting rate cut today and surprise the market again....another rate cut on the 20th of March could easily be justified as well. The problem is that The FED is so far behind the curve that the US economic slowdown is now spreading overseas to other economies -- Cisco's CEO communicated this in the last few days. Do we need any more evidence? Is the handwriting on the wall? Best Regards, Scott