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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (33059)	3/12/2001 11:01:06 AM
From: edamo	Respond to of 65232

scott..."insp....plenty of cash to capitalize on opportunity" the ceo is stating they will continue to lose money....look at the balance sheet, they may claim $525mil cash...but they have a -$405mil retained earnings, which if they lose money as the ceo states, will continue to increase...the cash is needed to fund operations, they have a "burn rate", like any other company that continues to lose money......it will take a whole lot of profit to reduce the negative retained earnings....they were unable to prosper in the best of times....how are they going to do so in a slowing economy?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (33059)	3/12/2001 11:21:51 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Scott, I've come to conclude that bottom is the wrong word here. I don't know that there will be an obvious bottom or capitulation. May only be apparent after many months. Have to wait and be sure bear rallies are not just that, have to see strong steady basing on the NAZ and haven't yet. Teresa had an interestng analsis of the NAZ last week or so...comparing to the Nikkei when it fell from its bubble, she targetted 1757 or thereabouts.... Moreover, she said ahead of time that knowing how perverse the market can be (I'm paraphrasing here), and since 1987 in retrospect was a sudden capitulation seen as the mother of all buying opps, this market would grind down with everybody buying on the dips (thinking it was 87 again)...bleeding them through continual losses...looks like that slow bleed is indeed the case

To: stockman_scott who wrote (33059)	3/12/2001 12:41:05 PM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Gosh it's getting really fugly out there....I never thought we would break 4000, ......never did I think breaking 3000 was possible, but last week it sure did look like 2000 was gonna break, which it obviously has....now, I cannot honestly say that 1000 is not gonna happen...it very well could. The houses have lost control of this market simple as that....I dont see any near term catalyst to turn the market.....rate drops aint gonna do it....sideline money aint gonna do it...short covering aint gonna do it.....only earnings are, and we are a long ways away from any tech company, let alone the bulk of them, reporting earnings with upside surpises........ Yep, this one will go down in history.......some may call it just a blip on the screen, but I call it a total collapse of the nazdaq market....from over 5000....to ....well, honestly, at this point, 1000 looks very possible....this aint no ordinary blip on the screen.....oh well, what can one do....I didnt sell sunw or jdsu a long time ago....I'm not selling now, but damn, I am almost speechless at how far and fast the techs have fallen......greenspan will not save the day...thats a joke...this is exactly what he wants.....he didn't like millions of 20 - 40 year old paper millionaires running around, so he put an abrupt stop to it. Tom..if your reading....as far as your theories on the houses go....I do think one day we are higher, so buying now may be prudent in the long run...or it may be a disaster, but personally, I feel as though the houses have lost control of this market and into the crapper she will go. I will say this though...and take it with the respect intended....I saw some posts earlier from somebody that questioned your calls...basically saying you made the same calls with the same reasonings at 5000, 4000, 3500, 3000, 2500, 2200, and now 2000....The person asked, at what point do you alter your opinions? I am curious about that as well......and will you still have the same reasoning at 1500 and/or 1000. Please understand, I am not meaning to give you a hard time, I am seriously interested in the answer........ Each and every call you made, you backed up with your reasoning as to why we should be buying at that specific time period......they seemed like good reasons, but obviously here we are fixing to make a beeline to 1500 and probably below....at what point does one say, "ok, maybe I should rethink my reasoning"??...anyway, at this point I am not selling.....just looking for answers about this market....sure doesnt look like we are bouncing up off 2000, which is a very, very bad sign.....now we have 2000 as overhead resistance...and who knows, maybe we will be looking up and see 1000 before too long....... So, at what point do you re-think your strategy.....again, my reasoning is plain and simple...flawed probably and wrong probably....but at this point my reasoning is if I didnt sell by now, I am not going to sell now.....heck sunw may go to sub $5, but shit, I held it thru this much, I aint selling it now...same with jdsu, qcom and everything else....but I am curious as to your response the the earlier person that questioned your strategy and at what point do you rethink it...... Thanks Keith......leave me a spot on that grate. I'm heading back down there....gonna be a long cold and hard winter for us down there, I believe....