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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (88555)	3/12/2001 11:31:28 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bullsky ' agreed on Japan & all roads leading to MOABO ~ Personally; having a healthy fear & respect for the market and market history that endorsed, if not demanded continual profit taking into any & all substantial rallies , using just partial positions and maintaining strong Cash levels in addition to using a strong defensive position in Cash & Gold - will prove to be the ultimate best offense in positioning for the MOABO ~ Cash as King in the era of Mad Max Margin Bubblemania - Whodathunkit ? Bull; a Japan "event" will lead to a LTC/Russian Meltdown type of global financial crisis and the only two things I hold today are Cash & Gold/SilverPM stocks and some Nat Gas E&P puts...not one single share in the oilpatch long - not a single penny; not yet... PS : XNG down 4% !?!!??!?! whodathunkit ? This is very simple Oilpatch afficianado's: ROTATE TO LATER CYCLE SUBSECTORS.... The E&P's are commodity price pureplays - they are EARLY cycle plays and the peak of combined Oil & Gas commodity prices has clearly allready passed us - it's history, put a fork in it.... one has to look to the horizon, not the end of one's nose in cyclical sectors. E&P's now face lower & substantially lower 2002 cfps & eps forecasts and those numbers are still very high; especially if we see "DEMAND" play the role that it should (and ultimately will) on commodity prices. E&P's can not & will not go to new highs with longterm lower eps & cfps reporting; a mere couple of quarters dead-ahead. The E&P cycle has imho; a 9o%+ probability of allready having seen its highs; this recent pop was a "2nd/Last Chance" exit opp to take the Big Money & to Raise Cash and to then Rotate to later cycle plays like the offshore drillers & select service co's - allthough perhaps not here at OSX 133ish... It's getting close to be the time to institute a long term net-short position in some E&P's here - riding them down for 40-50-60% gains...not a trading flip; but a cyclical rollover LT short-hold. Be patient; the OSX popped via rotation-flight to safety money here and there will not be sustained money flows to take the OSX to substantially new highs in the very near term - not in this environment imho. Be patient - wait to buy the dip; we've allways had one & make the market prove to us - we won't have another one before giving up on playing the rolling wave/trading range game. I think we have a good chance of seeing OSX 115ish once again; as there are simply too many BIG PROFITS in the OSX here - hanging out there in the wind in this dangerous market environment. Let the DOW break 10,000 and see what the OSX does here... Cash & Gold are the ultimate weapons for seizing & capitalizing on what will be the ultimate MOABO ~ patience friends... tic - toc' and you can't buy the dip in size - unless you were a Cash-Cave resident - now can you ?