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Technology Stocks : Alcatel (ALA) and France -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael M who wrote (3112)	3/12/2001 6:28:15 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

Hi Mike, based what Ericsson said(not media translation) “Ericsson said orders as a whole remain strong, but it is just seeing a push out in most mobile system shipments due to economic uncertainty as well as slower subscriber growth in the U.S. as subsidies have been cut," Ahmad added. "Fewer subscribers means lower phone use, which translates into slower systems build-out, which is what we are seeing in the U.S." “ Chief Executive Kurt Hellstrom sought to play up the prospects of the firm's infrastructure unit, which is the world's largest supplier of cellular systems.” cnnfn.cnn.com ALA statement last week that carrier networking and optics which accounts for 93% of revenue are very strong is consistent with what is going on. Alanyst from SSB today said that if someone has lot of business outside US is not good. His reasoning is that US is strong (LOL) When I see such misleading info from analysts today specifically then I am more convince to use my cash.......... last week from Alcatel: First Quarter Prospects : Strong Growth in Carrier Sales; Decline in Mobile Handsets Paris, March 8, 2001 - Alcatel's (NYSE: ALA and Paris: CGEP.PA) Board of Directors met Wednesday, March 7, 2001, and approved a stock-option program covering more than 30,000 employees worldwide. This plan will allow Alcatel to foster loyalty amongst its existing employees and add to its talent base through new hires. The plan's strike price was established at 50 Euros per option granted. Also during the meeting, Chairman Serge Tchuruk presented to the Board the group's prospects for the first quarter of 2001 and the outlook for the full year. First quarter sales are displaying strong growth in carrier-based activities, both in networking and optics. Mobile handset sales, on the other hand, which represent only 7% of total group revenue, are displaying a year-on-year deterioration due to excess inventory in distribution channels at the beginning of the year as well as a general market slowdown. Overall, consolidated revenue growth for the first quarter should be close to previously announced forecasts. Despite losses in mobile handsets, consolidated operating income for the first quarter should remain in line with levels from the same quarter one year ago due to clear improvement in carrier networking and optics segments. Full year sales, excluding the mobile handset business, should remain in line with previously announced forecasts. A cost cutting program affecting both supply chain and operating expenses is being implemented so that consolidated operating income will not be impacted by the deterioration of the mobile handset business. About Alcatel Alcatel builds next generation networks, delivering integrated end-to-end voice and data networking solutions to established and new carriers, as well as enterprises and consumers worldwide. With 130,000 employees and sales of EURO 31 billion in 2000, Alcatel operates in more than 130 countries. Contact press@www.alcatel.com Zbyslaw

To: Michael M who wrote (3112)	3/14/2001 4:51:59 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

The Capitulation of the Press By Pat Dorsey Yesterday morning, while doing my usual morning ramble through various financial Web sites, I noticed the following series of headlines on one site: ``Mulling How Low Tech Stocks Can Go,'' ``Why Buying Tech for the Long Haul Makes No Sense,'' ``Pull Out of Tech Positions--It's Not Too Late!'' and ``Time to Say Goodbye to That Struggling Tech Fund?'' This is interesting, to put things mildly. Just as last spring's tech feeding frenzy in the financial media signaled a huge top in the tech market (remember when every magazine cover featured a smug, tech CEO, fat on in-the-money stock options?), I wonder whether the current barrage of negative press surrounding tech stocks signals some sort of a bottom. Investing pundits often blather about how they look for ``capitulation'' when they try to decide when a sector has reached a bottom, and what they're usually talking about is trying to figure out when investors just completely give up on a group of stocks. Supposedly, this is a sign that the group won't go any lower, because expectations can't get any worse. Perhaps we should be looking for capitulation from the financial media, instead of from investors themselves. After all, Barron's sure did a great job calling the bottom in Berkshire Hathaway in late December 1999 when it ran a cover story titled ``Warren, What's Wrong?'' and subtitled ``Does his style of investing not work in today's market?'' At the time, Berkshire B shares were changing hands for about $1,716 apiece. Although they subsequently dipped as low as $1,400 at the height of the Nasdaq's top in March, Berkie B's are currently trading for about $2,300--a nice 34% return since the Barron's article appeared. I'll take that over any 14-month time frame you care to name. Being contrary is tough, but it usually pays off in the end. I seem to remember a lot of people moaning and groaning about their financial funds about this time last year, and that category is up 38% over the past year. I doubt tech will come back as strong, but if the financial press is any indication, it might be a better time to be compiling tech shopping lists instead of running for the exits. Bad Math >From the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal, in an article discussing the high valuation of stocks relative to their historical levels: ``Nasdaq stocks would have to drop almost three-fold just to get back to their average [price-to-earnings ratio] for the past 15 years.'' That would be a heck of a drop, wouldn't it? I guess that means that a stock trading at 30 would have to hit negative 60 or so, which sure would hurt. It would also be mathematically impossible, but that's okay. Never let basic arithmetic stand in the way of a good line. In a similar vein, I recently read an article that looked at the October 1998 prices of a number of big-cap Nasdaq stocks and asked whether the shares would pull back to those prices. ``Mathematically, it seems possible that that Cisco could drop from $18 and some change to $10 [Cisco's October 1998 low].'' Sure, it's mathematically possible that Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO - news) could become a penny stock--but this kind of reasoning makes absolutely no sense without taking the associated-earnings per share into account, since stock prices aren't determined in a vacuum. (Not anymore, at least.) For what it's worth, Cisco currently trades at exactly the same trailing price-to-earnings ratio as it did during the October 1998 low. Dell (Nasdaq: DELL - news) trades at half its late-1998 trailing P/E and Sun (Nasdaq: SUNW - news) trades for a fairly modest premium to its October 1998 P/E. Sure, all of these stocks could go lower, but they'll do so because either investors decide to pay a lower multiple of earnings, or the earnings themselves don't grow as quickly--not because the share price crosses some arbitrary barrier. Etc. In the ``just how long is 'long-term,' anyway?'' category: A managing director of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) was quoted in a recent Bridge News story as saying the following about tech stocks, ``So don't abandon the ship. In the long term (12-15 months), it is a great place to be in.'' Boy, I'd hate to see Goldman's definition of ``short term.'' One last funny from my Tyco-covering colleague Rob Plaza; he proposed the following headline for a story we ran yesterday about Tyco's (NYSE: TYC - news) acquisition of CIT Group(NYSE: CIT - news), which our editors (perhaps wisely) killed: ``Tyco to CIT: You Complete Me. Latest acquisition makes Tyco a mini-GE.'' I laughed for a long time when I read this one.