some thompson intraday stuff
Time 11:54 AM
Last Change %chg
DJIA 10422.2 -222.4 -2.1
Nasdaq Comp 1955.4 -97.3 -4.7
S&P 500 Index 1201.52 -31.9 -2.6
Russell 2000 464.79 -8.9 -1.9
PSE High Tech 713.1 -24.7 -3.3
Semiconductor 583.6 -9.8 -1.7
10 Year T-Note 48.95 -0.4 -0.7
30 Year T-Bond 52.93 -0.3 -0.5
Advance/Decline:
NYSE 0.41
NASDAQ 0.25
Volume: (millions)
NYSE 488.94
NASDAQ 867.41
#New Highs #New Lows
NYSE 59 70
NASDAQ 23 252
*=====================================================================*
Notable Market Movers:
*=====================================================================*
* The NASDAQ Composite is trading below the 2,000 level for the first
time in over 2 years, as the bears take charge of the court. A horde
of bearish analyst reports calling attention to the feeble economy
has kept the bulls on the sidelines. Additionally, Cisco (CSCO)
confirmed late Friday that it will lay off between 7%-11% of its
44,000 global workforce by July, and warned that earnings visibility
is very limited. The Comp has dropped 4.7% at 1,955.4, trading near
session lows of 1,944.6. Blue chips are likewise steeped in losses,
with only three DJIA issues in the black at midday. The Index is
trading 2.1% lower at 10,422, losing ground from Friday's two-year
closing low. Market Breadth is ugly on both the NYSE and NASDAQ,
with decliners crushing advancers by margins of 4 to 1 and 5 to 2,
respectively.
* Institutional Money Flows
Investors are bidding insurance issues higher rotating funds out of
tech stocks, seeking a safe harbor. Optimism surrounding the planned
merger between UK's Prudential (PUK) and American General (AGC)
has also added upside. AGC has gained $1.95 to $40.20, HIG has
increased $0.89 to $67.09, ALL has tacked on $0.53 to $41.85, and
SAFC has nudged up $7/16 to $25 3/8.
Optical/networking stocks are trading lower, after Salomon Smith
Barney dropped its price targets and/or earnings estimates on 12
companies in the sector. CIEN has plunged $12 1/16 to $53 1/8, JDSU
has dropped $2 1/4 to $23 3/4, TLAB has lost $3 1/2 to $42 1/16, and
GLW has shed $2.41 to $24.60. Semis are also down after Solly
downgraded both PMC-Sierra (PMCS) and Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC)
to "Outperform" ratings from "Buy," citing the widening macroeconomic
downturn. PMCS has decreased $2 3/4 to $33 3/16, AMCC has declined
$2 11/16 to $23 3/4, INTC has contracted $1 3/8 to $28, and TXN has
lost $2.27 to $30.48.
* Treasurys are trading higher as investors seek the safety of
government debt. However, profit taking, and concerns that future
Fed interest rate cuts have already been priced in, has tempered
gains. The 30-year Bond has added 16/32 at 101 5/32, with a yield of
5.29%.
*=====================================================================*
The following is a review of the 3 most recent I-Watch reports issued
this morning.
GLM -- Oil & Gas-Drill -- Basic Materials
12-Mar-01 11:54:48 Analysts expect offshore contract
drilling firm, Global Marine (GLM) to continue seeing benefits
associated with rising spending on oil drilling activity. GLM's
earnings estimates for 2001 represent a 115% year-over-year
rise from 2000 earnings. The First Call/Thomson Financial
consensus estimate forecasts 2001 earnings of $1.42, a
level comparable to 1997 and 1998 results. First Union, in
a note posted March 7, recommended investors continue to
purchase drillers, based on projected increased
international and deep water drilling, as the sector begins
its seasonal improvement. ThomsonFN.com's Seasonality
Tracker shows that March has historically been GLM's best
performing month, with an average return of 23.4%. However,
a few concerns linger. Salomon Smith Barney recently
trimmed its earnings estimates based on several rigs that
had unexpectedly idled. Additionally, with the stock's
rebound from $20.50 in late-November to near its annual
high of $34.25, profit taking has begun to take a toll. The
I-Watch 1-month chart shows that sell messages, which had
tapered in late-February, have begun to pick up as
shareholders look to book profits. Today, GLM is down with
the broader oil sector, off $1.07 at $31.02-- a loss of
more than 3%. I-Watch shows that brokers have lowered their
offers throughout the session, keeping the stock under
pressure. Conversely, super buy messages have remained
steady around $31. While GLM has remained underwater, it is
encouraging to see that volume has tapered from average
levels. Just 455.7k shares have changed hands compared with
the 10-day average of 1.6 million shares. Additionally,
block trade indicates that institutional participation is
muted, accounting for just over 10% of total trade.
SEI -- Oil & Gas-Equip. -- Basic Materials
12-Mar-01 11:43:17 Seitel (SEI), a provider of seismic data
and related geophysical services to the oil services
industry, has been a beneficiary of the boom in the North
American drilling over the past year. The stock is hovering
just shy of its 52-week high of $23. Today, although the
Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) has slipped 2.3%, SEI
has managed to rise $0.60, or 2.7%, to $22.65, suggesting
that there is a buyer(s) supporting the stock. Volume of
190k shares is on pace for a 80% surge over its daily
average of 205k shares, which is generally a positive sign
given the higher prices. SEI gapped higher this morning,
opening at $22.75 compared to yesterday's close of $22.05,
indicating that there were aggressive buyers at the start
of trading. Should oil servicers continue to pull back,
eventually SEI would succumb to the pressure. That said,
should oil service stocks resume their upward trend, the
strength in SEI suggests that it has the potential to
become one of the better performing oil service issues.
S -- Department Stores -- Services
12-Mar-01 11:11:18 Sears Roebuck (S) is showing unusually
strong sell message volume on I-Watch for the second
consecutive session. The overhang of supply, which has
capped the stock's gains around $40, helped push S into
the minus column this morning. The company, plagued with
softening sales over the last few years, has showed signs
of improvement of late. After bottoming around $27.50 in
mid-November 2000, shares have appreciated more than 42% to
approach the 52-week high of $43.50 reached last April.
However, concerns regarding same-store sales continue to
hang over the stock, causing analysts to revise earnings
estimates downwardly. Last week, Sears reported February
same-store sales fell 2.0%, while most analysts had
expected a 0.2% rise. Bear Stearns, Deutsche Banc Alex
Brown, Robertson Stephens, and Lehman Brothers all trimmed
their EPS estimates in reaction. From a technical
perspective, trade volume has decelerated as the stock
bumps up against resistance. For S to break convincingly
above $40, volume will need to ramp higher. Additionally,
the 1-month I-Watch pre-trade chart shows increased super
sell messages pooling around $40, confirming the ceiling.
Today's chart, while sell messages dominate the activity,
shows that institutions continue to support prices just
below $40, allowing S to overturn its opening lows. |
