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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (1428)	3/12/2001 4:44:29 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

These options are not priced like the ordinary in-the-money options, I guess because they can't be exercised until expiration. Ordinary in-the-money options never drop below the current fair value of the option. If these (YDXXJ) options were priced like that, they would be well over $3,800 (the immediate value) and would include a time premium. But YDXXJ has a negative time premium--that is, it has been selling for a lot less than a regular stock option. The only way I can explain that is the confidence of someone who believes the Dow is certain to return to previous high levels. Anyone who thinks the Dow is likely to decline considerably in the next year or so, and who is correct, will make a lot of money on the options. Of course, if I keep holding the options until the end of next year, and if the Dow is at 14,000 at that time, I will love all my money. Do you think that the Dow is likely to be at 14,000 at the end of next year?