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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (19396)	3/12/2001 7:24:52 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

t2, You can safely buy the tech or QQQ when NAZ is down another 100 points or so for a quick bounce toward 2000. There is no way that the dead cat bounce won't materialize when we first penetrate 2k. Along with the coming rate cut and another questionable Abby table pounding (Has she bought anything tech and removed all her $$$ from money market fund as she suggested that we investors do?), and short covering should send the index up 10% at least. But I will sell everything when we approach 2k and I think we will tank toward 1500 after the rate cut next week if the PPI and CPI numbers are bad. BTW, I think that with CSCO making something like 30 cents for the next 4 quarters (excluding the stock market gains bullshit), the issue will look awefully expensive at $14 (my target price). It will take the issue 3-5 years or longer to get back to 41 cents it made in the last 4 quarters. INTC also looks very much in danger. The issue, historically traded at around PE 20, will spot a PE of 25 even if it dips to $20 (I am confident that they won't make more than 80 cents in the next 4 quarters). Anyway investors with common sense should avoid it unless it goes down to $15, where some value can be found. This sure looks like a new economy depression too me. However, it's very likely going to spill over to old economy and DOW at 8000 is very very likely. I have seen several models predicting a DOW 5-6k within 3 years and Nasdaq 500 when everything bottoms out. I don't think that it will happen. But a NAZ 1500 is as likely as another round of table pounding from AFC. Quick in and quick out is the only way to make $$ in this market. I am all $$ now and only play dead cat bounce on a daily basis. larry!

To: t2 who wrote (19396)	3/13/2001 1:35:20 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

t2, Fed Watch pimco.com TA

To: t2 who wrote (19396)	3/13/2001 10:50:39 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 24042

t2, you make many good points. Unfortunately we are seeing the effects as you say of bubble bursting. Many investors are naive and are now paralyzed as a deer in looking at headlights. They are parked in money market funds and are waiting. Brokers are not recommending because of new non-disclosure rules:they don't know how bad things really are, companies can't tell them and we get new surprises every day. They warn, and then they warn again. They have downgraded everything to avoid lawsuits as people have lost money and are thinking of suing, see the Blodgett lawsuit. MERRIL chief tech analyst Bernstein , and all MERRIL right now, recommends no tech investing until picture clears up. They still recommend old economy. A lot of the old bubble as you know was financed with borrowed money and money now is still expensive. The initial dot.com dream is splintered. The web though is not dead. We just have to see how it develops. Soon I think we will be going up, after people are a little more comfortable with what is happening in Congress, health, energy, jobs, the Fed, etc. So any investing in tech. now has to be based strictly on your knowledge of the market and the companies that you are investing in. Includes optical.Do you believe in it? Is optical here to stay? Are these valuations you can be comfortable with? Personally I think the market is still volatile, that is why I daytrade. But that is my style, and I don't recommend it to anybody. My feeling though is that in JDSU and technology in general we have some really compelling prices here. If your long term horizon is 8 months or more , I think these prices are good and in some software companies in the $10 range, there is a mint to be made, including in B2B if you pick the right company. My horizon is 24 hours, so it does not count, I will add my disclaimer here, which of course is not for you, vbg Message 15442821 TA