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Pastimes : Alan Greenspan MUST GO: -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (275)	3/12/2001 6:30:05 PM
From: wdlngduc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 494

I detect a strong sense that our economy will recovery nicely in the second half of this year and be higher than this past January. I wish I could share your optimism. I have a bad feeling about the market. There is still too much bullishness out there. Way too much. And too many still feel we will recover by the fourth quarter at the latest. Maybe the fourth quarter of 2002! If we're lucky. Another rate cut by Greenspan of fifty basis points will be met with the same ultimate reaction the first two were. A short-covering blip up, then a resumption of the decline. The analogy with Japan is apt. They're pushing on a string over there. Our excesses of the past several years will not be corrected by just a couple of months of down markets. Japan's Nekkei just made a fresh sixteen year low! Deflation there is crushing real estate values. Bank loans made on them are underwater. Machine tool orders, a key indicator of economic activity, were down near 12% in January alone! Japan's problems could easily reach our shores. Overcapacity worldwide; excess inventory in just about everything. INTCs announcement of 25% revenue reduction for the first quarter portends more shocking news! From Sep 1, 2000 to Feb 28, 2001 the combined market capitalization lost on the NYSE and NASDAQ was a staggering $4.1 trillion! And going up! The wealth effect has disappeared. I wish I could blame it all on the Fed Chairman, (energy prices contributed), but he must assume more than half the blame. What a mess!