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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (7224)	3/13/2001 8:23:32 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Resist, Robert Resist! I think that trading purely intra-day then you could go long, but where is support in some of this stuff? You are just front-running the short-covering There is still a lot stocks with 99/Y2K fluff just waiting to be blown off, which offers better risk-return IMO. QCOM/VRTS/EBAY and more. All those 'parabolic' stocks. I cannot find (obvious)support in these weekly charts. Mean reversion and other stories. I heard a saying somewhere (maybe I even made it up ). "When something moves 2 sigma bet against it, when its over 3 follow it." In other words, envelopes, oscillators and all these reverting strategies are all well and good until you get these (fat-tailed) occasions. They all assume nice linear reversible processes, but the occurence of these crazy events occurs far more often than they predict/assume. When QCOM was going up in 1999, I am sure it blew all the envelopes and stats, as those who shorted it would concur. If you reckon with hindsight that standing in the way of QCOM in Q499 was perhaps not the best strategy, then catching it now may be just as foolish. I get short-term resistance in QCOM in the 55/58 region. I think that this region was also a l-term support. - I recommend, having a lie down until the feeling to go long goes away. - macavity. (MD - struck off)