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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (3388)	3/13/2001 8:12:05 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Problem is a lot of folks that made money in the past two years don't understand (answer....momentum game....that works both ways as we are now seeing) why they were sucessful and how to value stocks. Still comes back to the fact that shares in equity simply provide a share of future profits (and a pro rata share of the net asset value). If the company in question doesn't have profits or assets that can be employed to generate profit then it isn't worth squat. Graham & Dodd prevails.....history repeats itself...again. Best Regards, Mad2 PS, where have all the bears gone????

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (3388)	3/13/2001 8:22:12 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Here's a excerpt from a trading update service Note the last comment;^) BTW, is your subjectmarks link working on SI (I've been getting a error message for the past 18 hours. mad2 The Nasdaq composite has now hit the 240 point drop we referenced on March 8th, by breaking down through the 1928 level, currently trading at 1924. Dow and S&P500 look like they are going to move lower still. CNBC is finally calling it a Bear market in the S&P500, now that the index has already dropped 20%. Guru Abbey Cohen of Goldman Sachs re-weighted her equities portfolio last week to 70%. The stock market has plummeted since then. Abbey Cohen apparently doesn't use STOPS.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (3388)	3/13/2001 8:36:23 AM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 3543

Prominent Market Strategist Sees The Strong Possibility of a Return of the 1930's, The Shepherd Investment Strategist Announces Business Editors SPOKANE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 13, 2001--A return to the depression era of the 1930's is a distinct possibility according to James A. Shepherd, who sees the US stock market in a no-win situation. Shepherd, a prominent market strategist and founder of The Shepherd Investment Strategist (a service of JAS MTS Inc., jasmts.com ) created a Model in the 1970's that has a 100% accuracy record for predicting major changes in the US equity markets and the economy. It has issued 11 accurate signals since he started to use it to advise clients. The Model predicted the 1987 crash 41 days prior to it happening making Shepherd and many of his clients millionaires. America has been using every trick in the books for the last 18 years to avoid a downturn in the economy, but we're running out of tricks and we've run out of time. So how about Wall Street's current mantras to lower the interest rates again and reduce the tax rates to stimulate a slowing economy? According to Shepherd "both are possibilities, but as a solution neither is a certainty". As for reducing taxes, this is the least likely of the two to happen! Shepherd says the budget surplus reflected strong capital gains taxes that have now turned into massive losses; high tax revenue from a strong business climate is now declining due to a slowing economy; and an artificial wealth effect that created a strong stimulus to consumer confidence is now collapsing. Unlike the Fed that looks at the past while trying to manage the future, Shepherd has the reputation for being many months ahead in his predictions. He says that interest rates present two possible outcomes, neither of which is pretty for the stock market. Lowering interest rates would have to be done in the face of inflationary pressures as oil prices are generating higher costs for most goods and services throughout the economy. One of the consequences of importing this now very expensive commodity is a trade deficit that is now at historic highs. That, when combined with high personal and corporate debt, will prevent recovery as we continue to live beyond our means. If interest rates are lowered and inflation in real assets is not curtailed the stock market will collapse just as it did in the 1970's. But Wall Street is again pinning its hopes for saving the markets on more and more rate cuts when it is obvious that high interest rates are not the problem. A rate cut will probably only forestall the inevitable for a few days or weeks but in the end a collapsing stock market will lead into massive liquidation, forced selling of holdings, debt repudiation, massive unemployment and generally hard times. Since the Model issued its Sell signal in late October of 1999, Shepherd and his subscribers have been safely invested in long term government bonds that have now appreciated by over 23%. But increasing inflationary pressures could have a profound effect on these bonds and could demand a change in investment strategy in the near future. jasmts.com --30--CF/ph* CONTACT: The Shepherd Investment Strategist (A service of JAS MTS Inc.) Stu Harper, 509/777-6500 marketing@jasmts.com KEYWORD: WASHINGTON INDUSTRY KEYWORD: BANKING Today's News On The Net - Business Wire's full file on the Internet with Hyperlinks to your home page. URL: businesswire.com