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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (712)	3/13/2001 1:43:09 PM
From: Paul Kitzerow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3294

I'm a long-time lurker who's long JDSU via ETEK and SDLI (that should give a clue as to my cost basis - ouch!) Couple of data points for you from the field: 1) Re: DSL - We have it at home and business, both were "transitioned" due to Flashcom bankruptcy. Designated new provider for business was XO, who wanted $169/mo.(!), up from $69. We took PacBell at $79, gratefully (so far). Similarly, home went from $49 to $59, IMO a no brainer. I also cannot imagine life at 56K again. The thought has occurred to me that, like any market, DSL saw the initial rush of providers, then shakeout (due to too-low pricing), then consolidation. It's almost classic how the "big guys" (PacBell/SBC, XO, et al) are in great position to make money w/ DSL now that consumers are "hooked", and after the little guys blew up giving it away. With the interdependence of the PacBell's/SBC's and the Covads and Northpoints (hmm, who's in stronger position there?), it almost looks like part of a master plan! Clearly, those providers remaining feel they can charge more, and customers won't leave. I think they're right! 2) Our business is a distributor of passive components whose largest customer just happens to be Alcatel, for SBC, specifically parts for DSL line cards. Things were hunky dory until several weeks ago, when Alcatel CEM's (our ship-to points) announced they would accept no further shipments from us until further notice, even though they were scheduled orders, and "noncancelable-nonreturnable", custom parts. Furthermore, they are stringing us out big-time on payment. Picture still forming, but suffice it to say, the brakes have been hit hard up the line, even where it seems demand is apparently still strong! FWIW. PK