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To: SecularBull who wrote (6971)3/13/2001 3:34:10 PM
From: Jim DuBois  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
I probably was not clear enough. I was looking at her $42, not the current $22, which I agree gives a PE of about 52. That said, a PE of 52 would still seem pretty rich if growth was really only going to be in range of 13%. I think/pray that she is wrong about growth rate. If not, this puppy will be in the single digits, which would arguably be a fair valuation (based on a P/E PEG type metric).



To: SecularBull who wrote (6971)3/14/2001 12:46:17 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10934
 
You are still in denial.

1. The market is not paying for 2002 or 2003 or 2010 earnings. Today, they'll pay for 12M forward earnings at best, or maybe only TTM earnings.

2. How much will NTAP earn in the next 4 quarters (and try to be realistic)? Compare that to how much they earned in the last 4 quarters. That is the "growth" investors are looking at. And it does not justify current PEs.

3. Look at what is happening to NTAP's customer base. How can NTAP meet the high growth expectations you (still) have, when their customers are doing so poorly?

4. I will be buying NTAP 2004 LEAPs, once the earnings estimates have come down, and the bad news is in the stock, and the chart looks like a base is forming. We're not even close, yet.



To: SecularBull who wrote (6971)3/15/2001 9:56:38 AM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
re: The trailing P/E isn't even that high

You are correct only if the growth rates stop being slashed.

Greg