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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1522)	3/13/2001 5:41:31 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

AMAT to $25 - what would be the catalyst(s)? 1) Intel is still optimistically sticking with $7.5 billion for cap ex. If the computer and wireless industry don't turnaround soon they'll guide that # down imho. During the past 12 months every other # has been guided down (growth, employees, earnings etc). I'd be very surprised if 2001 cap ex, let alone 2002 didn't get guided down eventually. When that happens it'll hit the semi's like a bombshell. 2) Computer penetration in US households is now running over 60%. The are no major reasons to upgrade as of yet. 3) Cisco's CEO and other's have commented on the world economy slowing down (due to the US and Japan) I assume, but oil could also be a factor since it's been high for so long now. We're really just seeing the beginning of this imho. 4) The Nasdaq as a whole isn't cheap fundamentally based up past or forward PE's. Semi's should get taken down with the rest. 5) More tax selling this fall as the individuals finally capitulate. This last round of selling was the mutual funds. Redemptions in Feb were very high. The smart money got out of the markets in Jan/Feb (hopefully sooner). According to most polls the little guy is still holding praying for a rebound. Given these valuations any serious rebound will be met with serious hedge fund shorting and profit taking. 6) If you look at AMAT's multi-year chart (10 year plus), then $25 doesn't seem out of reach by any means. 7) A Price/Sales of 4 and a Forward PE of 30 is not at all close to low based upon past semi cycles as Cramer will point out in the next couple weeks. 8) If estimates remain exactly the same then you might be able to make the case that AMAT is fairly valued here, but it can't appreciate much from these levels before it's overvalued again and a great short target. 9) Everyone is afraid of missing out on the next semi cycle. When they are uncertain of when the next cycle will be, then I'll consider buying.