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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (1526)	3/13/2001 6:06:06 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

AGA Preview: US natural gas inventories seen down 75-90 bcf New York, March 13 (BridgeNews) - The American Gas Association is expected to report Wednesday that U.S. natural gas stocks fell by 75 billion to 90 billion cubic feet in the week ended Friday, though one estimate was as high as 105 bcf, according to a BridgeNews survey of natural gas brokers and analysts conducted Tuesday. The AGA report will be released at 1400 ET Wednesday. * * * Last week, the AGA reported gas withdrawals at 73 bcf, putting estimated total U.S. natural gas in storage at 786 bcf, down 371 bcf from stocks of 1,157 bcf for the same period in 2000. According to analyst Jim Ritterbusch, the AGA report "seems to be implying that industrial demand (for gas) has not picked up to where people thought it should be." With gas prices fairly high in historical terms, a slowing economy might mean that prices need to come down about 10% in order to stimulate increased industrial demand, Ritterbusch said. Because industrial demand has not been seen up, Ritterbusch said that that market is "discounting a storage trough of 650 bcf" by early April. According Aaron Kildow, a natural gas analyst with Prudential Securities, relatively cheap heating oil means that a number of industries that can switch to natural gas alternatives are doing so. Kildow said an AGA storage withdrawal of 75 bcf would be "fairly neutral." Most observers agreed that saying what impact an AGA storage release would have--bearish or bullish--would be difficult given the choppy nature of the market right now. "The market is looking fairly weak right now, with more of its momentum to the down side," Kildow said. The average withdrawal for this period over the last five years is 78.8 bcf and the year-ago draw was 31 bcf. One trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that little gas would be taken from stocks in the Western consuming region or in the producing region, and last week's cold weather in the Northeast wasn't cold enough to spur much additional gas use in the East. According to last week's AGA report, the eastern region accounted for the largest withdrawals, pulling 54 bcf from storage, or 22% of capacity. That compared with the East's withdrawal of 24 bcf during the same period in 2000. Eastern region storage levels are now at an estimated 402 bcf, according to the AGA. The western consuming region drew 13 bcf, or 29% of capacity, from storage, compared with a draw of 9 in 2000, while the U.S. producing region withdrew 6 bcf, or 25% of capacity, compared with 4 bcf withdrawn during the same period the previous year. End

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (1526)	3/13/2001 6:16:57 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Very interesting rebound today. Take a good look at JNPR, EXTR, FDRY. FDRY was dying a slow death and exploded to the upside. Lots of short covering from the look of it. I read that CSCO implied that there were others capable of taking market share from them, a hint that JNPR may be kicking their ass in the high end optical segment. I think we will see the patch give back some of the recent gains and I would look for a slow return toward OSX 121ish without another catalyst similar to the BRR deal. I'll look to reenter UTI on a deep pullback. One note about the discussions going on here and elsewhere on SI regarding ratios like PE, PS, etc. While there are traditional formulas for calculating fair value PEs based on growth rates, etc, I think that too many people only look at the numbers ( a very easy thing to do on the internet!! ) . They fail to see market share or dominance, intellectual property, sector specific variables, barriers to entry, how the company handled past difficulties and many other issues which should go into the 'valuation process'. Sometimes it's a little too simplistic to point to earnings or estimates and say "so&so company is only worth $3/share because they will grow at 10% and make $0.30 cents next year." I think this is a trap too many analysts seem to be falling into these days.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (1526)	3/13/2001 6:39:48 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

>> This is not a rhetorical question, but rather a Zen koan. Why is it so appealing to listen to Prudentbears, etc. when the Naz is at 1923 than it was when the Naz was at 3278? << You're absolutely right. I'm very guilty of it myself. However, I remember doing exactly the same thing at Naz 4000 and 3000 after it had fallen 1000, 2000+ pts respectively. I remember people saying that we were pretty close a bottom both times (especially at 3000). I used to think 1500 would probably be the low. Now I think the case can be made for 1000 if we get a global slowdown. If the index were just one stock vs the market and it was down 62% in 12 months, was still overvalued historically, had declining fundamentals would you be so eager to buy? That said I'm bullish near term for a bounce so I stayed long 2/3 of the positions I bought today. I'm just trying to remind myself how low things could go before they become "fairly valued". Buffet said just a few days ago that there are NO bargins out there yet. (Assuming he's talking tech).

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (1526)	3/13/2001 6:59:23 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 23153

Well, I continued to hold Prudent Bear all through the bubble and still hold it, and I think I have a good chance of at least preserving my capital. In the interval, other bear bets(short XLK, puts on an array of things including AMZN, YHOO, DELL, MOT, CMGI, etc.) have increased my capital --not astronomically, but satisfactorily. best, of course, have been my long energy stocks.--again without perfect timing and without using margin.