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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (29946)	3/13/2001 7:35:33 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 53068

at the risk of Kelvin mounting a confederate attack on me, I think Greenie will wind up being more a hero than a goat. The frothiness of the nasdaq market, combined with Y2K concerns required Greenie to act in certain ways. Remember the euphoria of 1999 and early 2000, we were all rich, it was tooooooo easy, and we would all continue makeing 30-40% a year in the market, in bad years. (remember my friend who moved out of a 70% gainer mutual fund in early 2000 to "do better". Combine this with the near panic of Y2K and the economic system would come crashing down. Well, Greenie made sure there was lots of money available, flooded the US and foreign systems to prevent any panics. This also stimulated the world economies and US markets. Remember, Greenie's main concerns are 1. keeping the US economy on an even keel, 2. keeping inflation tame, and 3, being the world's policeman for economic crises (Long Term Capital, Asian melt-down). The NAS's rise in 99 and early 2000 was causing a situation that, if not corrected in the short term, had the potential to unravel the US economy in a way not seen since the Great Depression. It was a lose-lose situation. If he started raising rates in late 99, when appropriate, he would have risk Y2K havoc. If he waited until we were past Y2K to raise rates, then it would take that much longer to have an effect, and the euphoria would continue that much longer and get that much more dangerous. Why did he feel he had to raise interest rates when there were no overt signs of inflation? - because, imo, he felt that the runaway stock market posed a threat that HAD to be dealt with. The higher the bubble, the greater the damage. So KT, launch your cavalrymen and cannons for defending Greenie, but it is my take. larry