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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2370)	3/13/2001 8:24:10 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Well: here is one view of household debt: ntrs.com

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2370)	3/13/2001 8:28:36 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I agree that the home refinancing gambit is AG's strategy here: and may keep the sheeple spending as bit longer: say into 2002. But that game can only go on so long. And it pays not to forgt that though Japan may be different than the US as e here ad naseaum, its banks are essential to global finance. If they stop or slow lending, it Will be felt. In 1998, the US economy was heating up, so it mattered little. With the econmomy stagnating, it will matter more. You sounded like AG in your writing by the way...

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2370)	3/14/2001 8:31:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Joel, I am now fundamentally, technically and intuitively bullish, for the short, intermediate and the long term, for both New and Old Economy shares, and every individual cell in my body is crying out to buy all subsequent dips via the selling of Puts. Here are my reasons: (a) The world is mostly at peace and at its productive best; (b) Scientific discoveries and implementations are at their fastest pace, ever; (c) Governments everywhere are in a proactive interventionist mode, ready to rescue the financial system from any and all danger, quickly, without the slightest hesitation, always; (d) Governments everywhere, in the aggregate, are at their most responsive than at any other historic period; (e) The global middle class is at its largest, working, forming families, building for the future; (f) The comparison to the ancient period 1929, and the comparisons of present day America with 1980s Japan are misleading; (g) America is in the hands of a solidarity leadership, in both the executive and legislature branches of the government; (h) Russia is no longer in free fall, slowly reviving after the cataclysmic breakup of the empire; (i) Japan has bottomed, having given back all that was unearned, readying for another charge upward, fueled by liquidity level rivaling any historic period; (j) China is undergoing the greatest capitalist revolution, ever; (k) Europe is on the verge of social, monetary and political unification, gathering momentum for Renaissance II; (l) Energy costs, adjusted for inflation is just off historic lows, with plenty of supplies about to get on stream; (m) Information cost, for gathering, transmission, storage and analysis, after the binge of the last 60 months, is dropping toward zero; (n) Network effect, on a global scale, is transforming planet earth into one intelligent organism, solving difficult problems and finding best solutions at the fastest pace; (o) Valuation: The downside in the financial system is clearly defined and delineated, unlike the upside, as we cannot go to zero; (p) The financial system, being a human construct, can be fixed via human political dictation and human legislative fiat – at worst case, we simply start new; (q) Many of the leading companies pre-crisis will be leading companies post-crisis, simply due to their organization, know-how and know-who, but playing in a much more empty environment; and (r) By selecting a basket of leading companies shares, buy, lock away, and get back to work, each of us will be able to look back on this period as a blessing of generations. In summary, the world is connected, at peace, orderly, vibrant, and on the verge of a new age of exploration and exploitation, and this time, gravity will not hold us back, for we are reaching for the stars. Renaissance II. Should we give up on hope, we cease to be responsible to families, friends and ourselves. Chugs, Jay

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2370)	3/14/2001 8:32:15 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Joel, just for fun … I will respond to the TV program <<notwithstanding the issue of valuation.... >> Any one trying to make a case for “this time it is different” will necessarily have to side step the valuation issue. I simply have not seen the issue side stepped so directly. <<growth in efficiency producing products has shifted to internal uses vs. the more visible and now decimated rapid growth vis a vis an internet linked presence....>> Muckedy muck and mush. The efficiency, and the concomitant increase in absolute amount of money and in the velocity of money are shaking our very complicated but piece-meal designed interlocking systems. For example, the efficiency of trading based on comparative advantages of nations is driving huge capital flows, across currency denominations, causing damages we have not had time to imagine yet. Thailand and all the little guys took a dusting. Now it will be the big guys turn. The trading system, had it been properly designed, would have necessitated a single global currency, and in time, a single standard of living. <<the reaction to current conditions is compressed...hence... in some cases, devaluation of business models et al, which should, in the case, normally take place in a 9 month or 12 month time period, have already taken place in a much more rapid fashion...i.e. instant adjustment, instant reaction...and of course made possible by effieciency infrastructure already in place during the previous build out... >> Yup, instant adjustment so far has simply meant instant destruction … a company’s whole life cycle happening in one glorious business cycle. <<resource use is shifting...where headline stories may show massive dislocation in, say, technology, allocation is now going to heretofore starving sectors that did not enjoy the same attention as those in the spotlight during the dot bomb revolution....and this includes human resources...so that the net current effect is far more stable than headlines might suggest.... >> Wealth is being destroyed at every step. The liquidity bubble has always moved, since the Roman times, between territories, between asset classes. Having one foot in boiling hot water and one in polar ice cold water is also dislocating to life, but on average, the temperature is OK. <<caution in regard to consumer spending... is allayed in part not by divestment of equity holdings but through re-financing of home equity ... from which the net surplus offsets the need to sell other assets...and also offsets extreme consumer pullbacks in as much as avg wealth in the USA is not in the stock market but is in home equity.... >> And so instead of having no savings to fall back on when unemployed, the poor heroic consumer will stand to lose his home as well. This last attempt at a consumer led soft landing is not a solution, but the cause of new problems. Financial laws, like natural laws, are immutable, impersonal, and savaging. In most countries, folks do not buy cars on credit. In many countries, folks cannot spend their house. In America, the many smart people have figured out a way to do both, on ever more spectacular scale. Efficiency, in the form of an engine, must be married to a strong vehicle system, designed specifically for that efficient engine. Are all the sub-systems to spec in America, and are all the I/O interfaces to the world of the high throughput variety? <<that over all, thus far, income vs. spending has still never been better and is the bottom line for the core confidence of the working country.... >> Day turns to night in minutes, especially during winter. Business cycles have existed for all of recorded history, and so are we the lucky generation to witness the cycle’s demise? No need to hang around outside until the sunset. Go home right now. <<much dot com finance came from surplus capital options created, hence a zero sum game...transfer from one account into another in a close system... >> Following this new economic theory of how no wealth is ever lost, let’s do it all over again. I actually want to agree with the above thought … transfer the wealth to me, let me not waste it on a Philip Patek Star 2000 pocket watch with Perpetual Star field, moon phase, sun rise/set and 20+ other functions by transferring the wealth to the Swiss watch makers … US$ 7 mm for the platinum edition. <<thus.. the long view... does not yet consider places where there are still over capacities that are not yet reduced to acceptable levels...but certainly can anticipate those places...and does consider where capital will have a sustainable return in places where the above outlined resources have shifted.... >> Yes, and so what does this have to do with specific stocks to buy? Which one? <<and last....taking out all money losing members of the nasdaq (i've seen this in three places besides tonite's program)...nasdaq avg p/e moves from the 120's to 35...not including however the issue of declining earnings against unadjusted current valuations.... >> For companies making no free cash flow on sustainable basis, the valuation should be pretty easy to calculate, and it is not 35 x accounting earnings. Try 10 x. <<so.... does the theory of certain bottoms in sight make sense to you...and in time, to be followed by other sets of lagging bottoms... fundamentals only...and not including emotional and/or other irrational forces beyond this outline.... >> I hope everyone in the world believes this pitch, drive the Nasdaq to 5000 again. It would be like my parents saying “Pam is coming over for homework with you. We will be back at 10:30 after the movie.” Chugs, Jay