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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (79844)	3/14/2001 9:30:42 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

there are a few things you haven't considered...firstly, personal income/spending now sport a negative gap, the biggest ever. secondly, real estate is still in a bubble, and in spite of that, households are taking more and more equity out of their homes in refinancings. this creates an illusion of consumer spending being 'intact' while in reality it is in grave danger of really falling off a cliff. namely, as soon as the housing bubble bursts too...my suspicion is in fact that the continuing surge in consumer borrowing at all levels is reflective of Ponzi finance, an attempt to dig oneself out of a debt hole by taking on even more debt. this imbalance needs to be corrected, and that will take TIME. otherwise, you're right that the modern inventory control systems, and the increased information flow contribute to the slowdown being faster than slowdowns of old in the corporate sector. however, the sheer scope of malinvestment and overcapacity especially in tech, means that the adjustment process will also last much longer than is currently expected. otoh, the resource/basic materials sectors have been subject to underinvestment and neglect over the past decade...see the Hathaway essay for a very nice outline of the problem. the Cali energy crisis is a good example for this...it also shows how quickly things can go from copacetic to catastrophic these days.