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To: pls418 who wrote (88625)	3/14/2001 4:51:53 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

pls418, HEY, I resemble that remark about false calls in the gold market, VBG. Although my record is much better than 50/50, I like to joke that I've called 16 of the last 8 gold rallys, LOL. There is a difference between gold and techs in this respect however. Gold stocks seldom tank abruptly after setting up for a rally (gee, I hope I'm not giving "The Manipulators" any ideas!). So incorrect calls can be corrected and culled in a day or so with less than a 2% haircut. A good call on a rally often nets a 20%-40% or even more profit, so the odds can be played to advantage if one is nimble and not blinded by goldbuggery. Worst problem will be cutting profits too soon when Mr Big comes someday. A possibility which is growing with each rally, IMHO. Techs OTOH, have been putting in bottom formations and then promptly crashing for scorching losses the last six months. Still, I agree it is soon time to try and catch a techie bottom, but with only with the utmost discretion. Be careful, it's a jungle out there, VBG. And good luck, Roebear

To: pls418 who wrote (88625)	3/14/2001 10:20:17 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thx pls. Luckily I side stepped most but not all of those mistaken calls for a new Bull Market in gold since the LT top in 1980(g). But there've also been excellent tradable rallies during those 20 yrs. For ex. and excellent run came out the of the 1987 crash lows into year end. But on failing rallies whether it's gold OR any other sector, key is to cut your loss quickly and not be stubborn when the market goes against you and tells you you're just plain wrong. Martin Pring's gold calls in Bear-ons were extraordinary in how consistently wrong they were. Every coupla of years he'd declare a new gold Bull with a long, elaborately presented series of arguments. And every time it was a ST top, lol. Even the once (IMHO) respected Bank Credit Analyst came out with a special report, summer 1990 titled, "The Coming Mega Bull Market in Gold". Of course what it failed to tell readers was that the the bull market was "Coming" TEN YEARS in the future, lol. It's easy for me to laugh 10 yrs later because I've not read the financial press or subscribed to any newsletters or telephone services for quite a number of years now. But during the 80s and early 90s it was part of the learning to curve to force me to do my own work and ignore those who ONLY make money by selling poor quality or intentionally misleading "research" to others. If they're work was any good, they'd be living off the profits from it, like I do. Long ago, I came to the conclusion that almost everything that's publicly available is work that's failed privately! Granted this is an extremely radical point of view. And one I doubt more than 1 out of 100 investors shares with ole Iso. But as a contrarian, my answer is that's one of the biggest reasons it's worked so well for me for years! Nuf said. Don't want to get folks any more upset than I already have(g). Regards Isopatch